Jamul-Dulzura Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	71,894	2411.3	− 2436	−24.7	× 62 / 403	−3.8
4	71,896	2442.9	− 2485	−42.1	× 65 / 403	−6.8
5	71,898	2472.7	− 2528	−55.3	× 69 / 403	−9.5
6	71,900	2516.2	− 2552	−35.8	× 59 / 403	−5.2
7	71,902	2545.0	− 2567	−22	× 71 / 403	−3.9
8	71,904	2543.7	− 2586	−42.3	× 77 / 403	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	66,674	2435.1	− 2436	−0.9	× 54 / 410	−0.1
4	66,676	2444.1	− 2485	−40.9	× 67 / 410	−6.7
5	66,679	2471.3	− 2528	−56.7	× 67 / 410	−9.3
6	66,680	2481.4	− 2552	−70.6	× 75 / 410	−12.9
7	66,682	2553.8	− 2567	−13.2	× 71 / 410	−2.3
8	66,685	2541.3	− 2586	−44.7	× 76 / 410	−8.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,505	2401.8	− 2436	−34.2	× 52 / 396	−4.5
4	68,507	2475.0	− 2485	−10	× 52 / 396	−1.3
5	68,510	2476.4	− 2528	−51.6	× 69 / 396	−9
6	68,511	2486.0	− 2552	−66	× 76 / 396	−12.7
7	68,514	2519.5	− 2567	−47.5	× 77 / 396	−9.2
8	68,515	2571.9	− 2586	−14.1	× 70 / 396	−2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	68,653	2447.2	− 2436	11.2	× 54 / 390	1.6
4	68,656	2445.0	− 2485	−40	× 56 / 390	−5.7
5	68,657	2501.9	− 2528	−26.1	× 57 / 390	−3.8
6	68,660	2482.0	− 2552	−70	× 73 / 390	−13.1
7	68,661	2517.9	− 2567	−49.1	× 75 / 390	−9.4
8	68,664	2545.7	− 2586	−40.3	× 75 / 390	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,185	2431.9	− 2436	−4.1	× 52 / 377	−0.6
4	69,186	2489.7	− 2485	4.7	× 51 / 377	0.6
5	69,187	2469.9	− 2528	−58.1	× 59 / 377	−9.1
6	69,188	2494.9	− 2552	−57.1	× 63 / 377	−9.5
7	69,189	2518.3	− 2567	−48.7	× 73 / 377	−9.4
8	69,190	2546.1	− 2586	−39.9	× 79 / 377	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	67,725	2485.4	− 2552	−66.6	× 32 / 147	−14.5
7	67,726	2477.4	− 2567	−89.6	× 67 / 147	−40.8
8	67,727	2503.5	− 2586	−82.5	× 48 / 147	−26.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,255	2408.1	− 2436	−27.9	× 49 / 344	−4
4	69,256	2422.8	− 2485	−62.2	× 56 / 344	−10.1
5	69,257	2427.5	− 2528	−100.5	× 70 / 344	−20.5
6	69,258	2452.1	− 2552	−99.9	× 55 / 344	−16
7	69,259	2471.1	− 2567	−95.9	× 46 / 344	−12.8
8	69,260	2451.9	− 2586	−134.1	× 68 / 344	−26.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−90

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,279	2396.5	− 2436	−39.5	× 56 / 351	−6.3
4	69,280	2443.0	− 2485	−42	× 56 / 351	−6.7
5	69,281	2441.5	− 2528	−86.5	× 65 / 351	−16
6	69,282	2458.2	− 2552	−93.8	× 64 / 351	−17.1
7	69,283	2466.4	− 2567	−100.6	× 60 / 351	−17.2
8	69,284	2466.1	− 2586	−119.9	× 50 / 351	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,263	2403.9	− 2436	−32.1	× 68 / 405	−5.4
4	69,264	2432.0	− 2485	−53	× 59 / 405	−7.7
5	69,265	2458.7	− 2528	−69.3	× 58 / 405	−9.9
6	69,266	2470.6	− 2552	−81.4	× 68 / 405	−13.7
7	69,267	2498.6	− 2567	−68.4	× 80 / 405	−13.5
8	69,268	2442.7	− 2586	−143.3	× 72 / 405	−25.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,025	2395.0	− 2436	−41	× 67 / 407	−6.7
4	69,026	2460.9	− 2485	−24.1	× 63 / 407	−3.7
5	69,027	2442.7	− 2528	−85.3	× 65 / 407	−13.6
6	69,028	2451.8	− 2552	−100.2	× 56 / 407	−13.8
7	69,029	2479.8	− 2567	−87.2	× 72 / 407	−15.4
8	69,030	2476.8	− 2586	−109.2	× 84 / 407	−22.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	69,066	2365.6	− 2436	−70.4	× 55 / 398	−9.7
4	69,067	2436.5	− 2485	−48.5	× 76 / 398	−9.3
5	69,068	2455.2	− 2528	−72.8	× 62 / 398	−11.3
6	69,069	2442.1	− 2552	−109.9	× 56 / 398	−15.5
7	69,070	2479.1	− 2567	−87.9	× 76 / 398	−16.8
8	69,071	2475.4	− 2586	−110.6	× 73 / 398	−20.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −37, −40, −39, −38, −36, −82, −90, −80, −76, −76, −83 → −61.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 1 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 46 · 2021→2022: 8 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 0 · 2025→2026: 7 → average 8.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.2 × 2.66 = 21.8. Upper limit −39.7, lower limit −83.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Jamul-Dulzura Union Elementary