Orchard Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 38 points under the grade 3 bar. 2398 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 28 points under the grade 4 bar. 2457 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 28 points under the grade 4 bar. 2457 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 19 points under the grade 5 bar. 2509 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	63,462	2385.8	− 2436	−50.2	× 62 / 362	−8.6
4	63,465	2418.7	− 2485	−66.3	× 59 / 362	−10.8
5	63,466	2470.9	− 2528	−57.1	× 59 / 362	−9.3
6	63,468	2489.0	− 2552	−63	× 60 / 362	−10.4
7	63,471	2489.4	− 2567	−77.6	× 65 / 362	−13.9
8	63,472	2520.7	− 2586	−65.3	× 57 / 362	−10.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−63

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,880	2383.6	− 2436	−52.4	× 52 / 343	−7.9
4	58,881	2416.4	− 2485	−68.6	× 58 / 343	−11.6
5	58,884	2486.9	− 2528	−41.1	× 60 / 343	−7.2
6	58,886	2489.2	− 2552	−62.8	× 58 / 343	−10.6
7	58,887	2508.8	− 2567	−58.2	× 56 / 343	−9.5
8	58,890	2546.7	− 2586	−39.3	× 59 / 343	−6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,592	2396.2	− 2436	−39.8	× 63 / 355	−7.1
4	60,595	2423.5	− 2485	−61.5	× 51 / 355	−8.8
5	60,596	2477.7	− 2528	−50.3	× 69 / 355	−9.8
6	60,599	2510.1	− 2552	−41.9	× 65 / 355	−7.7
7	60,601	2476.4	− 2567	−90.6	× 51 / 355	−13
8	60,603	2515.8	− 2586	−70.2	× 56 / 355	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,718	2411.1	− 2436	−24.9	× 72 / 363	−4.9
4	60,719	2413.5	− 2485	−71.5	× 58 / 363	−11.4
5	60,721	2457.4	− 2528	−70.6	× 60 / 363	−11.7
6	60,723	2515.2	− 2552	−36.8	× 77 / 363	−7.8
7	60,726	2512.6	− 2567	−54.4	× 54 / 363	−8.1
8	60,727	2514.7	− 2586	−71.3	× 42 / 363	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,971	2387.8	− 2436	−48.2	× 48 / 351	−6.6
4	60,972	2438.1	− 2485	−46.9	× 64 / 351	−8.6
5	60,973	2455.5	− 2528	−72.5	× 69 / 351	−14.3
6	60,974	2519.6	− 2552	−32.4	× 55 / 351	−5.1
7	60,975	2520.7	− 2567	−46.3	× 65 / 351	−8.6
8	60,976	2545.1	− 2586	−40.9	× 50 / 351	−5.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,073	2371.6	− 2436	−64.4	× 63 / 184	−22.1
4	61,074	2407.6	− 2485	−77.4	× 47 / 184	−19.8
5	61,075	2468.4	− 2528	−59.6	× 42 / 184	−13.6
6	61,076	2433.5	− 2552	−118.5	× 32 / 184	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,020	2398.2	− 2436	−37.8	× 46 / 179	−9.7
4	61,021	2422.9	− 2485	−62.1	× 55 / 179	−19.1
5	61,022	2447.6	− 2528	−80.4	× 42 / 179	−18.9
6	61,023	2502.4	− 2552	−49.6	× 36 / 179	−10
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,965	2403.7	− 2436	−32.3	× 35 / 171	−6.6
4	60,966	2438.5	− 2485	−46.5	× 50 / 171	−13.6
5	60,967	2466.7	− 2528	−61.3	× 48 / 171	−17.2
6	60,968	2521.8	− 2552	−30.2	× 38 / 171	−6.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,734	2416.3	− 2436	−19.7	× 51 / 183	−5.5
4	60,735	2434.2	− 2485	−50.8	× 35 / 183	−9.7
5	60,736	2441.6	− 2528	−86.4	× 49 / 183	−23.1
6	60,737	2518.3	− 2552	−33.7	× 48 / 183	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,671	2398.4	− 2436	−37.6	× 39 / 155	−9.5
4	60,672	2457.1	− 2485	−27.9	× 42 / 155	−7.6
5	60,673	2457.2	− 2528	−70.8	× 29 / 155	−13.2
6	60,674	2509.1	− 2552	−42.9	× 45 / 155	−12.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −63, −54, −57, −52, −49, −76, −58, −44, −47, −43 → −54.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 27 · 2022→2023: 18 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 4 → average 9.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.6 × 2.66 = 25.5. Upper limit −28.8, lower limit −79.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.