Visions In Education: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 11.

All students

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 28 points under the grade 3 bar. 2408 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 48 points under the grade 4 bar. 2437 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 18 points under the grade 4 bar. 2467 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 29 points under the grade 5 bar. 2500 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores just under the grade 6 bar. 2549 vs. 2552. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 14 points under the grade 8 bar. 2572 vs. 2586.
11th The average 11th grader scores just under the grade 11 bar. 2623 vs. 2628.

Students fluent in English

Math with English out of the way. Includes students who have only ever spoken English.

Grade bars 3rd 322 students 25 points under the grade 3 bar. 4th 316 students 44 points under the grade 4 bar. 5th 308 students 12 points under the grade 4 bar. 6th 328 students 24 points under the grade 5 bar. 7th 329 students 13 points under the grade 7 bar. 8th 347 students 16 points under the grade 8 bar. 11th 1065 students Just under the grade 11 bar.

English learners

Students leave this group as they become fluent, so its average stays low even where they learn well.

Grade bars 3rd 17 students 81 points under the grade 3 bar. 4th 22 students 49 points under the grade 3 bar. 5th 21 students 53 points under the grade 3 bar. 6th 22 students Just under the grade 3 bar. 7th 19 students 15 points under the grade 4 bar. 8th 17 students Meets the grade 8 bar. 11th 155 students Meets the grade 11 bar.

the group's average that grade's own bar the distance between

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade. The state leaves out any group of ten students or fewer, so a grade may be missing from the charts.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,213	2402.2	− 2436	−33.8	× 278 / 2064	−4.6
4	62,214	2442.6	− 2485	−42.4	× 287 / 2064	−5.9
5	62,217	2464.6	− 2528	−63.4	× 246 / 2064	−7.6
6	62,218	2505.2	− 2552	−46.8	× 266 / 2064	−6
7	62,221	2525.4	− 2567	−41.6	× 231 / 2064	−4.7
8	62,222	2515.0	− 2586	−71	× 210 / 2064	−7.2
11	62,224	2523.0	− 2628	−105	× 546 / 2064	−27.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,708	2399.5	− 2436	−36.5	× 292 / 2202	−4.8
4	57,710	2447.4	− 2485	−37.6	× 270 / 2202	−4.6
5	57,711	2475.0	− 2528	−53	× 289 / 2202	−7
6	57,714	2480.5	− 2552	−71.5	× 259 / 2202	−8.4
7	57,715	2540.1	− 2567	−26.9	× 247 / 2202	−3
8	57,717	2513.6	− 2586	−72.4	× 230 / 2202	−7.6
11	57,719	2512.8	− 2628	−115.2	× 615 / 2202	−32.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,403	2403.6	− 2436	−32.4	× 227 / 2246	−3.3
4	59,404	2432.4	− 2485	−52.6	× 281 / 2246	−6.6
5	59,407	2465.5	− 2528	−62.5	× 260 / 2246	−7.2
6	59,408	2494.4	− 2552	−57.6	× 264 / 2246	−6.8
7	59,410	2501.3	− 2567	−65.7	× 280 / 2246	−8.2
8	59,412	2526.8	− 2586	−59.2	× 263 / 2246	−6.9
11	59,415	2513.0	− 2628	−115	× 671 / 2246	−34.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,519	2401.0	− 2436	−35	× 275 / 2317	−4.2
4	59,521	2455.9	− 2485	−29.1	× 217 / 2317	−2.7
5	59,523	2463.1	− 2528	−64.9	× 271 / 2317	−7.6
6	59,525	2500.0	− 2552	−52	× 248 / 2317	−5.6
7	59,527	2516.4	− 2567	−50.6	× 308 / 2317	−6.7
8	59,529	2507.9	− 2586	−78.1	× 290 / 2317	−9.8
11	59,531	2494.0	− 2628	−134	× 708 / 2317	−40.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,780	2401.5	− 2436	−34.5	× 275 / 2663	−3.6
4	59,781	2451.7	− 2485	−33.3	× 324 / 2663	−4.1
5	59,782	2467.8	− 2528	−60.2	× 281 / 2663	−6.4
6	59,783	2479.8	− 2552	−72.2	× 329 / 2663	−8.9
7	59,784	2510.1	− 2567	−56.9	× 354 / 2663	−7.6
8	59,785	2508.9	− 2586	−77.1	× 360 / 2663	−10.4
11	59,786	2501.7	− 2628	−126.3	× 740 / 2663	−35.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,387	2433.6	− 2436	−2.4	× 252 / 2459	−0.2
4	58,388	2469.6	− 2485	−15.4	× 280 / 2459	−1.8
5	58,389	2492.5	− 2528	−35.5	× 258 / 2459	−3.7
6	58,390	2512.3	− 2552	−39.7	× 296 / 2459	−4.8
7	58,391	2551.3	− 2567	−15.7	× 256 / 2459	−1.6
8	58,392	2540.0	− 2586	−46	× 289 / 2459	−5.4
11	58,393	2537.9	− 2628	−90.1	× 828 / 2459	−30.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,854	2418.8	− 2436	−17.2	× 281 / 2719	−1.8
4	59,855	2458.3	− 2485	−26.7	× 295 / 2719	−2.9
5	59,856	2474.2	− 2528	−53.8	× 287 / 2719	−5.7
6	59,857	2508.2	− 2552	−43.8	× 290 / 2719	−4.7
7	59,858	2539.3	− 2567	−27.7	× 310 / 2719	−3.2
8	59,859	2531.6	− 2586	−54.4	× 272 / 2719	−5.4
11	59,860	2537.1	− 2628	−90.9	× 984 / 2719	−32.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,809	2419.3	− 2436	−16.7	× 342 / 3031	−1.9
4	59,810	2444.2	− 2485	−40.8	× 274 / 3031	−3.7
5	59,811	2459.1	− 2528	−68.9	× 312 / 3031	−7.1
6	59,812	2492.2	− 2552	−59.8	× 302 / 3031	−6
7	59,813	2523.2	− 2567	−43.8	× 350 / 3031	−5.1
8	59,814	2522.2	− 2586	−63.8	× 369 / 3031	−7.8
11	59,815	2544.9	− 2628	−83.1	× 1082 / 3031	−29.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,734	2405.4	− 2436	−30.6	× 310 / 3110	−3.1
4	59,735	2449.6	− 2485	−35.4	× 343 / 3110	−3.9
5	59,736	2464.1	− 2528	−63.9	× 295 / 3110	−6.1
6	59,737	2483.2	− 2552	−68.8	× 319 / 3110	−7.1
7	59,738	2515.8	− 2567	−51.2	× 329 / 3110	−5.4
8	59,739	2516.3	− 2586	−69.7	× 364 / 3110	−8.2
11	59,740	2542.0	− 2628	−86	× 1150 / 3110	−31.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−65

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,495	2399.4	− 2436	−36.6	× 349 / 3176	−4
4	59,496	2444.9	− 2485	−40.1	× 318 / 3176	−4
5	59,497	2473.1	− 2528	−54.9	× 334 / 3176	−5.8
6	59,498	2485.3	− 2552	−66.7	× 313 / 3176	−6.6
7	59,499	2528.5	− 2567	−38.5	× 367 / 3176	−4.4
8	59,500	2547.5	− 2586	−38.5	× 365 / 3176	−4.4
11	59,501	2591.7	− 2628	−36.3	× 1130 / 3176	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,422	2408.3	− 2436	−27.7	× 339 / 3288	−2.9
4	59,423	2437.3	− 2485	−47.7	× 338 / 3288	−4.9
5	59,424	2467.3	− 2528	−60.7	× 329 / 3288	−6.1
6	59,425	2499.5	− 2552	−52.5	× 350 / 3288	−5.6
7	59,426	2549.2	− 2567	−17.8	× 348 / 3288	−1.9
8	59,427	2571.6	− 2586	−14.4	× 364 / 3288	−1.6
11	59,428	2623.1	− 2628	−4.9	× 1220 / 3288	−1.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −64, −68, −73, −77, −76, −48, −57, −61, −65, −42, −25 → −59.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2021: 28 · 2021→2022: 9 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 23 · 2025→2026: 17 → average 9.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.9 × 2.66 = 26.3. Upper limit −33.3, lower limit −85.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.