Thomas Kelly Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade 3 bar

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

All students

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 43 points under the grade 3 bar. 2393 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 11 points under the grade 3 bar. 2426 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 13 points under the grade 3 bar. 2423 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

Students fluent in English

Math with English out of the way. Includes students who have only ever spoken English.

Grade bars 5th 36 students Just under the grade 3 bar.

English learners

Students leave this group as they become fluent, so its average stays low even where they learn well.

Grade bars 5th 12 students 42 points under the grade 3 bar.

the group's average that grade's own bar the distance between

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade. The state leaves out any group of ten students or fewer, so a grade may be missing from the charts.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	62,485	2394.4	− 2436	−41.6	× 67 / 179	−15.6
4	62,487	2435.3	− 2485	−49.7	× 63 / 179	−17.5
5	62,489	2473.1	− 2528	−54.9	× 49 / 179	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,978	2382.6	− 2436	−53.4	× 86 / 219	−21
4	57,980	2426.3	− 2485	−58.7	× 68 / 219	−18.2
5	57,982	2460.4	− 2528	−67.6	× 65 / 219	−20.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,672	2397.3	− 2436	−38.7	× 61 / 207	−11.4
4	59,674	2444.1	− 2485	−40.9	× 78 / 207	−15.4
5	59,676	2451.0	− 2528	−77	× 68 / 207	−25.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,789	2379.9	− 2436	−56.1	× 78 / 208	−21
4	59,792	2449.3	− 2485	−35.7	× 64 / 208	−11
5	59,793	2434.3	− 2528	−93.7	× 66 / 208	−29.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,044	2409.0	− 2436	−27	× 71 / 208	−9.2
4	60,045	2423.9	− 2485	−61.1	× 72 / 208	−21.2
5	60,046	2438.5	− 2528	−89.5	× 65 / 208	−28
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,112	2391.5	− 2436	−44.5	× 57 / 152	−16.7
4	60,113	2433.8	− 2485	−51.2	× 53 / 152	−17.9
5	60,114	2426.9	− 2528	−101.1	× 42 / 152	−27.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,067	2387.4	− 2436	−48.6	× 51 / 165	−15
4	60,068	2432.9	− 2485	−52.1	× 58 / 165	−18.3
5	60,069	2427.0	− 2528	−101	× 56 / 165	−34.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,992	2377.5	− 2436	−58.5	× 51 / 164	−18.2
4	59,993	2446.5	− 2485	−38.5	× 56 / 164	−13.1
5	59,994	2435.0	− 2528	−93	× 57 / 164	−32.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,753	2324.1	− 2436	−111.9	× 52 / 161	−36.1
4	59,754	2427.2	− 2485	−57.8	× 53 / 161	−19
5	59,755	2419.2	− 2528	−108.8	× 56 / 161	−37.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−93

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,680	2392.9	− 2436	−43.1	× 48 / 140	−14.8
4	59,681	2425.5	− 2485	−59.5	× 44 / 140	−18.7
5	59,682	2423.3	− 2528	−104.7	× 48 / 140	−35.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −48, −59, −52, −62, −58, −62, −68, −64, −93, −69 → −63.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 11 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 4 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 29 · 2025→2026: 24 → average 11
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11 × 2.66 = 29.3. Upper limit −34.2, lower limit −92.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.