David Lubin Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2480 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2511 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader meets the grade 5 bar. 2531 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2574 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,525	2437.9	− 2436	1.9	× 76 / 310	0.5
4	61,527	2487.6	− 2485	2.6	× 79 / 310	0.7
5	61,529	2512.6	− 2528	−15.4	× 87 / 310	−4.3
6	61,531	2511.5	− 2552	−40.5	× 68 / 310	−8.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,086	2426.8	− 2436	−9.2	× 85 / 321	−2.4
4	57,087	2467.1	− 2485	−17.9	× 78 / 321	−4.3
5	57,089	2522.4	− 2528	−5.6	× 74 / 321	−1.3
6	57,091	2554.7	− 2552	2.7	× 84 / 321	0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,761	2433.9	− 2436	−2.1	× 70 / 304	−0.5
4	58,762	2481.9	− 2485	−3.1	× 82 / 304	−0.8
5	58,764	2512.1	− 2528	−15.9	× 75 / 304	−3.9
6	58,767	2563.2	− 2552	11.2	× 77 / 304	2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,875	2434.4	− 2436	−1.6	× 60 / 285	−0.3
4	58,878	2462.5	− 2485	−22.5	× 73 / 285	−5.8
5	58,879	2512.7	− 2528	−15.3	× 80 / 285	−4.3
6	58,882	2537.0	− 2552	−15	× 72 / 285	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,131	2448.0	− 2436	12	× 79 / 282	3.4
4	59,132	2496.0	− 2485	11	× 52 / 282	2
5	59,133	2496.1	− 2528	−31.9	× 73 / 282	−8.3
6	59,134	2562.2	− 2552	10.2	× 78 / 282	2.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,214	2462.0	− 2436	26	× 61 / 260	6.1
4	59,215	2463.2	− 2485	−21.8	× 67 / 260	−5.6
5	59,216	2472.8	− 2528	−55.2	× 66 / 260	−14
6	59,217	2502.1	− 2552	−49.9	× 66 / 260	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−26

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,172	2451.1	− 2436	15.1	× 60 / 235	3.9
4	59,173	2486.1	− 2485	1.1	× 56 / 235	0.3
5	59,174	2470.9	− 2528	−57.1	× 57 / 235	−13.8
6	59,175	2550.9	− 2552	−1.1	× 62 / 235	−0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	59,103	2453.0	− 2436	17	× 72 / 252	4.9
4	59,104	2493.6	− 2485	8.6	× 55 / 252	1.9
5	59,105	2512.9	− 2528	−15.1	× 63 / 252	−3.8
6	59,106	2547.0	− 2552	−5	× 62 / 252	−1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,860	2467.6	− 2436	31.6	× 67 / 254	8.3
4	58,861	2493.6	− 2485	8.6	× 74 / 254	2.5
5	58,862	2531.6	− 2528	3.6	× 54 / 254	0.8
6	58,863	2576.5	− 2552	24.5	× 59 / 254	5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						17

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,787	2480.2	− 2436	44.2	× 46 / 246	8.3
4	58,788	2511.3	− 2485	26.3	× 68 / 246	7.3
5	58,789	2530.7	− 2528	2.7	× 76 / 246	0.8
6	58,790	2573.9	− 2552	21.9	× 56 / 246	5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						21

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −12, −7, −2, −14, 0, −26, −10, 2, 17, 21 → −3.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 5 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 12 · 2018→2019: 14 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 16 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 15 · 2025→2026: 4 → average 12.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.1 × 2.66 = 32.2. Upper limit 29.1, lower limit −35.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.