Robla Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	61,165	2382.9	− 2436	−53.1	× 320 / 1232	−13.8
4	61,166	2431.0	− 2485	−54	× 321 / 1232	−14.1
5	61,169	2459.2	− 2528	−68.8	× 289 / 1232	−16.1
6	61,170	2484.6	− 2552	−67.4	× 302 / 1232	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,735	2399.0	− 2436	−37	× 300 / 1217	−9.1
4	56,738	2434.6	− 2485	−50.4	× 321 / 1217	−13.3
5	56,740	2466.2	− 2528	−61.8	× 318 / 1217	−16.1
6	56,742	2490.6	− 2552	−61.4	× 278 / 1217	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,385	2401.4	− 2436	−34.6	× 286 / 1223	−8.1
4	58,386	2422.3	− 2485	−62.7	× 307 / 1223	−15.7
5	58,388	2448.8	− 2528	−79.2	× 326 / 1223	−21.1
6	58,390	2488.8	− 2552	−63.2	× 304 / 1223	−15.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,514	2400.0	− 2436	−36	× 288 / 1188	−8.7
4	58,516	2439.5	− 2485	−45.5	× 289 / 1188	−11.1
5	58,518	2457.5	− 2528	−70.5	× 297 / 1188	−17.6
6	58,520	2487.2	− 2552	−64.8	× 314 / 1188	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,759	2407.2	− 2436	−28.8	× 286 / 1138	−7.2
4	58,760	2453.4	− 2485	−31.6	× 287 / 1138	−8
5	58,761	2471.6	− 2528	−56.4	× 286 / 1138	−14.2
6	58,762	2484.9	− 2552	−67.1	× 279 / 1138	−16.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,834	2383.2	− 2436	−52.8	× 278 / 1082	−13.6
4	58,835	2420.7	− 2485	−64.3	× 273 / 1082	−16.2
5	58,836	2428.9	− 2528	−99.1	× 275 / 1082	−25.2
6	58,837	2465.5	− 2552	−86.5	× 256 / 1082	−20.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,788	2380.0	− 2436	−56	× 247 / 1044	−13.2
4	58,789	2418.1	− 2485	−66.9	× 267 / 1044	−17.1
5	58,790	2445.7	− 2528	−82.3	× 271 / 1044	−21.4
6	58,791	2474.4	− 2552	−77.6	× 259 / 1044	−19.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,705	2383.7	− 2436	−52.3	× 291 / 1103	−13.8
4	58,706	2418.5	− 2485	−66.5	× 257 / 1103	−15.5
5	58,707	2435.8	− 2528	−92.2	× 275 / 1103	−23
6	58,708	2459.9	− 2552	−92.1	× 280 / 1103	−23.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,462	2370.7	− 2436	−65.3	× 264 / 1075	−16
4	58,463	2424.3	− 2485	−60.7	× 298 / 1075	−16.8
5	58,464	2433.0	− 2528	−95	× 251 / 1075	−22.2
6	58,465	2467.3	− 2552	−84.7	× 262 / 1075	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,379	2369.4	− 2436	−66.6	× 257 / 1079	−15.9
4	58,380	2412.7	− 2485	−72.3	× 280 / 1079	−18.8
5	58,381	2443.1	− 2528	−84.9	× 293 / 1079	−23.1
6	58,382	2468.1	− 2552	−83.9	× 249 / 1079	−19.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −61, −53, −61, −55, −46, −75, −71, −76, −76, −77 → −65.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 8 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 9 · 2019→2022: 29 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 5 · 2024→2025: 0 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 7.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.8 × 2.66 = 20.7. Upper limit −44.4, lower limit −85.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Robla Elementary