Elverta Joint Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	60,600	2389.8	− 2436	−46.2	× 39 / 221	−8.2
4	60,603	2443.0	− 2485	−42	× 35 / 221	−6.7
5	60,604	2453.5	− 2528	−74.5	× 29 / 221	−9.8
6	60,607	2464.7	− 2552	−87.3	× 33 / 221	−13
7	60,608	2502.0	− 2567	−65	× 39 / 221	−11.5
8	60,611	2523.4	− 2586	−62.6	× 46 / 221	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,220	2336.1	− 2436	−99.9	× 23 / 212	−10.8
4	56,222	2455.4	− 2485	−29.6	× 31 / 212	−4.3
5	56,224	2464.6	− 2528	−63.4	× 39 / 212	−11.7
6	56,226	2459.5	− 2552	−92.5	× 25 / 212	−10.9
7	56,227	2437.6	− 2567	−129.4	× 33 / 212	−20.1
8	56,230	2507.9	− 2586	−78.1	× 49 / 212	−18.1
11	56,232	2479.4	− 2628	−148.6	× 12 / 212	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,853	2411.8	− 2436	−24.2	× 24 / 177	−3.3
4	57,854	2443.7	− 2485	−41.3	× 20 / 177	−4.7
5	57,857	2469.3	− 2528	−58.7	× 31 / 177	−10.3
6	57,858	2446.7	− 2552	−105.3	× 35 / 177	−20.8
7	57,861	2447.5	− 2567	−119.5	× 24 / 177	−16.2
8	57,862	2469.0	− 2586	−117	× 43 / 177	−28.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,988	2392.0	− 2436	−44	× 26 / 170	−6.7
4	57,990	2439.6	− 2485	−45.4	× 25 / 170	−6.7
5	57,991	2441.3	− 2528	−86.7	× 21 / 170	−10.7
6	57,994	2462.8	− 2552	−89.2	× 33 / 170	−17.3
7	57,995	2454.7	− 2567	−112.3	× 39 / 170	−25.8
8	57,998	2486.5	− 2586	−99.5	× 26 / 170	−15.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,246	2388.7	− 2436	−47.3	× 29 / 191	−7.2
4	58,247	2426.3	− 2485	−58.7	× 29 / 191	−8.9
5	58,248	2472.6	− 2528	−55.4	× 29 / 191	−8.4
6	58,249	2429.1	− 2552	−122.9	× 19 / 191	−12.2
7	58,250	2461.5	− 2567	−105.5	× 28 / 191	−15.5
8	58,251	2481.6	− 2586	−104.4	× 42 / 191	−23
11	58,252	2499.7	− 2628	−128.3	× 15 / 191	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,287	2356.8	− 2436	−79.2	× 17 / 149	−9
4	58,288	2409.3	− 2485	−75.7	× 26 / 149	−13.2
5	58,289	2437.7	− 2528	−90.3	× 28 / 149	−17
6	58,290	2472.5	− 2552	−79.5	× 24 / 149	−12.8
7	58,291	2452.5	− 2567	−114.5	× 31 / 149	−23.8
8	58,292	2435.0	− 2586	−151	× 23 / 149	−23.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,260	2441.2	− 2436	5.2	× 21 / 142	0.8
4	58,261	2407.8	− 2485	−77.2	× 19 / 142	−10.3
5	58,262	2458.1	− 2528	−69.9	× 24 / 142	−11.8
6	58,263	2447.8	− 2552	−104.2	× 28 / 142	−20.5
7	58,264	2480.0	− 2567	−87	× 23 / 142	−14.1
8	58,265	2461.9	− 2586	−124.1	× 27 / 142	−23.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,157	2423.5	− 2436	−12.5	× 19 / 132	−1.8
4	58,158	2451.3	− 2485	−33.7	× 22 / 132	−5.6
5	58,159	2419.2	− 2528	−108.8	× 21 / 132	−17.3
6	58,160	2461.3	− 2552	−90.7	× 26 / 132	−17.9
7	58,161	2476.6	− 2567	−90.4	× 22 / 132	−15.1
8	58,162	2454.0	− 2586	−132	× 22 / 132	−22
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,916	2387.9	− 2436	−48.1	× 24 / 136	−8.5
4	57,917	2430.5	− 2485	−54.5	× 24 / 136	−9.6
5	57,918	2462.3	− 2528	−65.7	× 26 / 136	−12.6
6	57,919	2458.2	− 2552	−93.8	× 19 / 136	−13.1
7	57,920	2471.0	− 2567	−96	× 22 / 136	−15.5
8	57,921	2491.3	− 2586	−94.7	× 21 / 136	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	57,837	2371.1	− 2436	−64.9	× 22 / 131	−10.9
4	57,838	2425.0	− 2485	−60	× 23 / 131	−10.5
5	57,839	2478.9	− 2528	−49.1	× 25 / 131	−9.4
6	57,840	2560.1	− 2552	8.1	× 23 / 131	1.4
7	57,841	2453.5	− 2567	−113.5	× 21 / 131	−18.2
8	57,842	2476.4	− 2586	−109.6	× 17 / 131	−14.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−62

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −62, −84, −84, −82, −85, −99, −80, −80, −74, −62 → −79.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 22 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 2 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 19 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 6 · 2025→2026: 12 → average 8.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.7 × 2.66 = 23.1. Upper limit −56.1, lower limit −102.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Elverta Joint Elementary