Victoria Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 37 points under the grade 3 bar. 2399 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 26 points under the grade 4 bar. 2459 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 10 points under the grade 4 bar. 2475 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 29 points under the grade 5 bar. 2499 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	58,321	2418.0	− 2436	−18	× 95 / 314	−5.4
4	58,323	2442.0	− 2485	−43	× 75 / 314	−10.3
5	58,324	2464.7	− 2528	−63.3	× 69 / 314	−13.9
6	58,326	2495.8	− 2552	−56.2	× 75 / 314	−13.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,143	2377.1	− 2436	−58.9	× 67 / 293	−13.5
4	54,145	2448.8	− 2485	−36.2	× 90 / 293	−11.1
5	54,147	2459.9	− 2528	−68.1	× 67 / 293	−15.6
6	54,150	2499.5	− 2552	−52.5	× 69 / 293	−12.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,723	2382.2	− 2436	−53.8	× 88 / 326	−14.5
4	55,725	2426.9	− 2485	−58.1	× 76 / 326	−13.5
5	55,726	2441.3	− 2528	−86.7	× 91 / 326	−24.2
6	55,729	2489.4	− 2552	−62.6	× 71 / 326	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,820	2411.5	− 2436	−24.5	× 81 / 348	−5.7
4	55,822	2438.7	− 2485	−46.3	× 93 / 348	−12.4
5	55,824	2469.0	− 2528	−59	× 72 / 348	−12.2
6	55,826	2488.7	− 2552	−63.3	× 102 / 348	−18.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,079	2408.1	− 2436	−27.9	× 73 / 321	−6.3
4	56,080	2452.6	− 2485	−32.4	× 84 / 321	−8.5
5	56,081	2478.1	− 2528	−49.9	× 90 / 321	−14
6	56,082	2498.9	− 2552	−53.1	× 74 / 321	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,143	2390.3	− 2436	−45.7	× 47 / 254	−8.5
4	56,144	2454.1	− 2485	−30.9	× 58 / 254	−7.1
5	56,145	2444.4	− 2528	−83.6	× 74 / 254	−24.4
6	56,146	2488.3	− 2552	−63.7	× 75 / 254	−18.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	56,092	2379.8	− 2436	−56.2	× 55 / 247	−12.5
4	56,093	2475.0	− 2485	−10	× 55 / 247	−2.2
5	56,094	2456.6	− 2528	−71.4	× 63 / 247	−18.2
6	56,095	2463.9	− 2552	−88.1	× 74 / 247	−26.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,968	2394.7	− 2436	−41.3	× 67 / 245	−11.3
4	55,969	2427.9	− 2485	−57.1	× 51 / 245	−11.9
5	55,970	2498.9	− 2528	−29.1	× 59 / 245	−7
6	55,971	2498.8	− 2552	−53.2	× 68 / 245	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,732	2394.0	− 2436	−42	× 62 / 243	−10.7
4	55,733	2447.7	− 2485	−37.3	× 68 / 243	−10.4
5	55,734	2505.8	− 2528	−22.2	× 53 / 243	−4.8
6	55,735	2530.6	− 2552	−21.4	× 60 / 243	−5.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−31

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	55,655	2399.3	− 2436	−36.7	× 43 / 193	−8.2
4	55,656	2458.7	− 2485	−26.3	× 50 / 193	−6.8
5	55,657	2474.9	− 2528	−53.1	× 54 / 193	−14.9
6	55,658	2498.7	− 2552	−53.3	× 46 / 193	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −43, −53, −66, −49, −41, −59, −59, −45, −31, −43 → −48.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 13 · 2017→2018: 17 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 18 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 14 · 2024→2025: 14 · 2025→2026: 12 → average 11.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.8 × 2.66 = 31.4. Upper limit −17.5, lower limit −80.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.