Antelope Creek Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 12 points under the grade 3 bar. 2424 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 20 points under the grade 4 bar. 2465 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 15 points under the grade 5 bar. 2513 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2560 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	54,809	2429.3	− 2436	−6.7	× 53 / 238	−1.5
4	54,810	2454.6	− 2485	−30.4	× 47 / 238	−6
5	54,813	2485.8	− 2528	−42.2	× 76 / 238	−13.5
6	54,814	2540.7	− 2552	−11.3	× 62 / 238	−2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,907	2446.0	− 2436	10	× 74 / 273	2.7
4	50,910	2472.2	− 2485	−12.8	× 60 / 273	−2.8
5	50,911	2529.4	− 2528	1.4	× 60 / 273	0.3
6	50,913	2531.2	− 2552	−20.8	× 79 / 273	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,367	2463.7	− 2436	27.7	× 69 / 249	7.7
4	52,370	2479.9	− 2485	−5.1	× 63 / 249	−1.3
5	52,371	2522.6	− 2528	−5.4	× 60 / 249	−1.3
6	52,373	2534.5	− 2552	−17.5	× 57 / 249	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,434	2447.9	− 2436	11.9	× 76 / 256	3.5
4	52,435	2482.1	− 2485	−2.9	× 61 / 256	−0.7
5	52,438	2530.6	− 2528	2.6	× 62 / 256	0.6
6	52,439	2557.4	− 2552	5.4	× 57 / 256	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,609	2461.2	− 2436	25.2	× 67 / 257	6.6
4	52,610	2483.3	− 2485	−1.7	× 64 / 257	−0.4
5	52,611	2533.6	− 2528	5.6	× 63 / 257	1.4
6	52,612	2566.1	− 2552	14.1	× 63 / 257	3.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,597	2435.9	− 2436	−0.1	× 67 / 254	0
4	52,598	2476.1	− 2485	−8.9	× 66 / 254	−2.3
5	52,599	2519.1	− 2528	−8.9	× 59 / 254	−2.1
6	52,600	2560.7	− 2552	8.7	× 62 / 254	2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,558	2456.8	− 2436	20.8	× 61 / 247	5.1
4	52,559	2498.9	− 2485	13.9	× 64 / 247	3.6
5	52,560	2530.4	− 2528	2.4	× 65 / 247	0.6
6	52,561	2545.8	− 2552	−6.2	× 57 / 247	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						8

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,392	2426.5	− 2436	−9.5	× 63 / 254	−2.4
4	52,393	2503.7	− 2485	18.7	× 64 / 254	4.7
5	52,394	2526.3	− 2528	−1.7	× 64 / 254	−0.4
6	52,395	2562.7	− 2552	10.7	× 63 / 254	2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,156	2431.1	− 2436	−4.9	× 65 / 255	−1.2
4	52,157	2479.7	− 2485	−5.3	× 63 / 255	−1.3
5	52,158	2538.1	− 2528	10.1	× 64 / 255	2.5
6	52,159	2553.5	− 2552	1.5	× 63 / 255	0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,045	2423.9	− 2436	−12.1	× 71 / 259	−3.3
4	52,046	2465.2	− 2485	−19.8	× 62 / 259	−4.7
5	52,047	2513.3	− 2528	−14.7	× 62 / 259	−3.5
6	52,048	2559.7	− 2552	7.7	× 64 / 259	1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −24, −6, 1, 5, 11, −2, 8, 5, 0, −10 → −1.2
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 18 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 5 · 2025→2026: 10 → average 8.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.4 × 2.66 = 22.3. Upper limit 21.1, lower limit −23.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.