Tustin Connect: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 11.

6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2603 vs. 2552.
7th The average 7th grader meets the grade 7 bar. 2589 vs. 2567.
8th The average 8th grader meets the grade 8 bar. 2607 vs. 2586.
11th The average 11th grader scores 16 points under the grade 8 bar. 2570 vs. 2586. The 11th-grade bar is 2628.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	49,034	2472.7	− 2628	−155.3	× 13 / 13	−155.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−155

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	50,394	2616.8	− 2552	64.8	× 12 / 68	11.4
7	50,396	2537.7	− 2567	−29.3	× 15 / 68	−6.5
8	50,398	2610.8	− 2586	24.8	× 18 / 68	6.6
11	50,400	2520.9	− 2628	−107.1	× 23 / 68	−36.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	50,592	2623.6	− 2567	56.6	× 15 / 62	13.7
8	50,593	2578.7	− 2586	−7.3	× 15 / 62	−1.8
11	50,594	2565.0	− 2628	−63	× 32 / 62	−32.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−21

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	49,333	2574.8	− 2628	−53.2	× 36 / 36	−53.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,498	2453.9	− 2436	17.9	× 22 / 213	1.8
4	50,499	2518.0	− 2485	33	× 30 / 213	4.6
5	50,500	2567.2	− 2528	39.2	× 23 / 213	4.2
6	50,501	2587.0	− 2552	35	× 22 / 213	3.6
7	50,502	2555.4	− 2567	−11.6	× 27 / 213	−1.5
8	50,503	2534.8	− 2586	−51.2	× 24 / 213	−5.8
11	50,504	2595.8	− 2628	−32.2	× 65 / 213	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	50,463	2622.4	− 2552	70.4	× 14 / 114	8.6
7	50,464	2591.3	− 2567	24.3	× 15 / 114	3.2
8	50,465	2552.3	− 2586	−33.7	× 24 / 114	−7.1
11	50,466	2539.1	− 2628	−88.9	× 61 / 114	−47.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	50,317	2555.6	− 2528	27.6	× 11 / 120	2.5
6	50,318	2578.8	− 2552	26.8	× 13 / 120	2.9
7	50,319	2614.2	− 2567	47.2	× 17 / 120	6.7
8	50,320	2620.9	− 2586	34.9	× 19 / 120	5.5
11	50,321	2576.9	− 2628	−51.1	× 60 / 120	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	50,075	2630.1	− 2567	63.1	× 14 / 89	9.9
8	50,076	2652.9	− 2586	66.9	× 17 / 89	12.8
11	50,077	2558.4	− 2628	−69.6	× 58 / 89	−45.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	49,941	2603.3	− 2552	51.3	× 11 / 88	6.4
7	49,942	2588.8	− 2567	21.8	× 11 / 88	2.7
8	49,943	2607.4	− 2586	21.4	× 21 / 88	5.1
11	49,944	2569.7	− 2628	−58.3	× 45 / 88	−29.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −155, −25, −21, −53, −3, −43, −8, −23, −16 → −38.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2016→2018: 130 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2021: 32 · 2021→2022: 50 · 2022→2023: 40 · 2023→2024: 35 · 2024→2025: 15 · 2025→2026: 7 → average 39.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 39.1 × 2.66 = 104. Upper limit 65.4, lower limit −142.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.