Lake Forest Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

All students

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2451 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 12 points under the grade 4 bar. 2473 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 24 points under the grade 5 bar. 2504 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores just under the grade 5 bar. 2528 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

Students fluent in English

Math with English out of the way. Includes students who have only ever spoken English.

Grade bars 3rd 91 students Meets the grade 3 bar. 4th 64 students Meets the grade 4 bar. 5th 65 students Just under the grade 5 bar. 6th 64 students Meets the grade 6 bar.

English learners

Students leave this group as they become fluent, so its average stays low even where they learn well.

Grade bars 3rd 18 students 65 points under the grade 3 bar. 4th 16 students 48 points under the grade 3 bar. 5th 14 students 35 points under the grade 3 bar. 6th 14 students 51 points under the grade 3 bar.

the group's average that grade's own bar the distance between

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade. The state leaves out any group of ten students or fewer, so a grade may be missing from the charts.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	52,650	2462.9	− 2436	26.9	× 133 / 528	6.8
4	52,652	2493.1	− 2485	8.1	× 130 / 528	2
5	52,654	2519.6	− 2528	−8.4	× 139 / 528	−2.2
6	52,656	2529.1	− 2552	−22.9	× 126 / 528	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	48,926	2432.6	− 2436	−3.4	× 127 / 533	−0.8
4	48,928	2481.3	− 2485	−3.7	× 131 / 533	−0.9
5	48,929	2520.4	− 2528	−7.6	× 134 / 533	−1.9
6	48,932	2541.1	− 2552	−10.9	× 141 / 533	−2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,262	2457.3	− 2436	21.3	× 130 / 501	5.5
4	50,263	2468.3	− 2485	−16.7	× 117 / 501	−3.9
5	50,265	2511.3	− 2528	−16.7	× 120 / 501	−4
6	50,268	2551.9	− 2552	−0.1	× 134 / 501	0
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,285	2437.9	− 2436	1.9	× 113 / 492	0.4
4	50,287	2495.9	− 2485	10.9	× 130 / 492	2.9
5	50,289	2490.3	− 2528	−37.7	× 127 / 492	−9.7
6	50,291	2533.8	− 2552	−18.2	× 122 / 492	−4.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,479	2438.5	− 2436	2.5	× 107 / 479	0.6
4	50,480	2486.5	− 2485	1.5	× 116 / 479	0.4
5	50,481	2529.9	− 2528	1.9	× 126 / 479	0.5
6	50,482	2511.0	− 2552	−41	× 130 / 479	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−10

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,381	2432.6	− 2436	−3.4	× 96 / 382	−0.9
4	50,382	2496.6	− 2485	11.6	× 101 / 382	3.1
5	50,383	2528.2	− 2528	0.2	× 98 / 382	0.1
6	50,384	2530.6	− 2552	−21.4	× 87 / 382	−4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,341	2418.7	− 2436	−17.3	× 87 / 390	−3.9
4	50,342	2471.6	− 2485	−13.4	× 97 / 390	−3.3
5	50,343	2506.5	− 2528	−21.5	× 106 / 390	−5.8
6	50,344	2529.8	− 2552	−22.2	× 100 / 390	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−19

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	50,196	2427.0	− 2436	−9	× 81 / 366	−2
4	50,197	2474.1	− 2485	−10.9	× 79 / 366	−2.4
5	50,198	2511.0	− 2528	−17	× 96 / 366	−4.5
6	50,199	2530.2	− 2552	−21.8	× 110 / 366	−6.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,952	2440.0	− 2436	4	× 79 / 338	0.9
4	49,953	2468.0	− 2485	−17	× 81 / 338	−4.1
5	49,954	2507.5	− 2528	−20.5	× 82 / 338	−5
6	49,955	2531.8	− 2552	−20.2	× 96 / 338	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,819	2451.4	− 2436	15.4	× 109 / 346	4.9
4	49,820	2472.6	− 2485	−12.4	× 80 / 346	−2.9
5	49,821	2504.3	− 2528	−23.7	× 79 / 346	−5.4
6	49,822	2527.6	− 2552	−24.4	× 78 / 346	−5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 1, −7, −2, −11, −10, −3, −19, −15, −14, −9 → −8.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 7 · 2022→2023: 16 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 5 → average 6.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.2 × 2.66 = 16.5. Upper limit 7.6, lower limit −25.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.