Fern Drive Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 20 points under the grade 3 bar. 2416 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 25 points under the grade 4 bar. 2460 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 34 points under the grade 5 bar. 2494 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 11 points under the grade 6 bar. 2541 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	49,321	2435.0	− 2436	−1	× 76 / 356	−0.2
4	49,323	2446.2	− 2485	−38.8	× 90 / 356	−9.8
5	49,325	2486.3	− 2528	−41.7	× 92 / 356	−10.8
6	49,327	2545.0	− 2552	−7	× 98 / 356	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	45,839	2424.8	− 2436	−11.2	× 84 / 332	−2.8
4	45,842	2491.2	− 2485	6.2	× 76 / 332	1.4
5	45,844	2470.6	− 2528	−57.4	× 78 / 332	−13.5
6	45,846	2550.4	− 2552	−1.6	× 94 / 332	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,066	2408.0	− 2436	−28	× 77 / 303	−7.1
4	47,067	2468.8	− 2485	−16.2	× 80 / 303	−4.3
5	47,069	2487.7	− 2528	−40.3	× 76 / 303	−10.1
6	47,071	2499.6	− 2552	−52.4	× 70 / 303	−12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,075	2447.2	− 2436	11.2	× 77 / 313	2.8
4	47,077	2467.8	− 2485	−17.2	× 82 / 313	−4.5
5	47,080	2487.3	− 2528	−40.7	× 76 / 313	−9.9
6	47,081	2552.4	− 2552	0.4	× 78 / 313	0.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,253	2453.4	− 2436	17.4	× 56 / 285	3.4
4	47,254	2508.4	− 2485	23.4	× 76 / 285	6.2
5	47,255	2497.3	− 2528	−30.7	× 81 / 285	−8.7
6	47,256	2553.8	− 2552	1.8	× 72 / 285	0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,105	2429.9	− 2436	−6.1	× 50 / 217	−1.4
4	47,106	2466.5	− 2485	−18.5	× 57 / 217	−4.9
5	47,107	2476.5	− 2528	−51.5	× 61 / 217	−14.5
6	47,108	2565.5	− 2552	13.5	× 49 / 217	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	47,087	2418.2	− 2436	−17.8	× 51 / 220	−4.1
4	47,088	2468.5	− 2485	−16.5	× 52 / 220	−3.9
5	47,089	2478.3	− 2528	−49.7	× 54 / 220	−12.2
6	47,090	2563.5	− 2552	11.5	× 63 / 220	3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,940	2430.6	− 2436	−5.4	× 65 / 210	−1.7
4	46,941	2454.4	− 2485	−30.6	× 47 / 210	−6.8
5	46,942	2508.4	− 2528	−19.6	× 42 / 210	−3.9
6	46,943	2563.5	− 2552	11.5	× 56 / 210	3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,702	2421.0	− 2436	−15	× 60 / 220	−4.1
4	46,703	2476.5	− 2485	−8.5	× 62 / 220	−2.4
5	46,704	2488.8	− 2528	−39.2	× 50 / 220	−8.9
6	46,705	2562.7	− 2552	10.7	× 48 / 220	2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,570	2416.1	− 2436	−19.9	× 62 / 228	−5.4
4	46,571	2459.6	− 2485	−25.4	× 56 / 228	−6.2
5	46,572	2494.3	− 2528	−33.7	× 63 / 228	−9.3
6	46,573	2541.0	− 2552	−11	× 47 / 228	−2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −23, −15, −34, −12, 1, −18, −17, −9, −13, −23 → −16.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 19 · 2017→2018: 22 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 10 → average 11.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.6 × 2.66 = 30.9. Upper limit 14.6, lower limit −47.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.