Opportunities for Learning - Capistrano: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade 8 bar

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 11.

11th The average 11th grader scores just under the grade 8 bar. 2581 vs. 2586. The 11th-grade bar is 2628.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	48,914	2514.7	− 2628	−113.3	× 24 / 24	−113.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−113

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	45,510	2533.5	− 2628	−94.5	× 30 / 30	−94.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,721	2531.2	− 2628	−96.8	× 31 / 31	−96.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−97

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,732	2505.8	− 2628	−122.2	× 32 / 32	−122.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−122

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,908	2525.8	− 2628	−102.2	× 42 / 42	−102.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	45,591	2527.2	− 2628	−100.8	× 44 / 44	−100.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,744	2523.7	− 2628	−104.3	× 27 / 27	−104.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−104

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,734	2514.9	− 2628	−113.1	× 43 / 43	−113.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−113

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,587	2540.2	− 2628	−87.8	× 49 / 49	−87.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,345	2529.3	− 2628	−98.7	× 47 / 47	−98.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−99

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	46,217	2580.8	− 2628	−47.2	× 60 / 60	−47.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −113, −95, −97, −122, −102, −101, −104, −113, −88, −99, −47 → −98.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 18 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 25 · 2018→2019: 20 · 2019→2021: 1 · 2021→2022: 3 · 2022→2023: 9 · 2023→2024: 25 · 2024→2025: 11 · 2025→2026: 52 → average 16.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 16.6 × 2.66 = 44.2. Upper limit −54.1, lower limit −142.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.