Calistoga Joint Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,735	2424.8	− 2436	−11.2	× 71 / 431	−1.8
4	46,738	2438.4	− 2485	−46.6	× 74 / 431	−8
5	46,739	2485.8	− 2528	−42.2	× 64 / 431	−6.3
6	46,742	2556.4	− 2552	4.4	× 62 / 431	0.6
7	46,743	2486.5	− 2567	−80.5	× 58 / 431	−10.8
8	46,746	2501.0	− 2586	−85	× 50 / 431	−9.9
11	46,747	2557.3	− 2628	−70.7	× 52 / 431	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,452	2434.7	− 2436	−1.3	× 63 / 459	−0.2
4	43,453	2442.4	− 2485	−42.6	× 70 / 459	−6.5
5	43,456	2477.1	− 2528	−50.9	× 78 / 459	−8.6
6	43,457	2534.6	− 2552	−17.4	× 60 / 459	−2.3
7	43,460	2548.2	− 2567	−18.8	× 61 / 459	−2.5
8	43,462	2525.7	− 2586	−60.3	× 59 / 459	−7.8
11	43,464	2484.4	− 2628	−143.6	× 68 / 459	−21.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,517	2412.7	− 2436	−23.3	× 62 / 436	−3.3
4	44,519	2485.4	− 2485	0.4	× 64 / 436	0.1
5	44,520	2466.0	− 2528	−62	× 67 / 436	−9.5
6	44,523	2536.2	− 2552	−15.8	× 77 / 436	−2.8
7	44,524	2508.2	− 2567	−58.8	× 57 / 436	−7.7
8	44,527	2530.7	− 2586	−55.3	× 65 / 436	−8.2
11	44,528	2549.9	− 2628	−78.1	× 44 / 436	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−39

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,532	2413.7	− 2436	−22.3	× 61 / 451	−3
4	44,533	2444.1	− 2485	−40.9	× 62 / 451	−5.6
5	44,536	2529.7	− 2528	1.7	× 66 / 451	0.2
6	44,537	2518.8	− 2552	−33.2	× 74 / 451	−5.4
7	44,540	2505.5	− 2567	−61.5	× 81 / 451	−11
8	44,541	2509.5	− 2586	−76.5	× 57 / 451	−9.7
11	44,544	2499.2	− 2628	−128.8	× 50 / 451	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,678	2438.3	− 2436	2.3	× 69 / 457	0.3
4	44,679	2461.9	− 2485	−23.1	× 63 / 457	−3.2
5	44,680	2499.1	− 2528	−28.9	× 61 / 457	−3.9
6	44,681	2557.7	− 2552	5.7	× 64 / 457	0.8
7	44,682	2476.6	− 2567	−90.4	× 71 / 457	−14
8	44,683	2479.5	− 2586	−106.5	× 81 / 457	−18.9
11	44,684	2506.8	− 2628	−121.2	× 48 / 457	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,424	2418.4	− 2436	−17.6	× 54 / 437	−2.2
4	44,425	2465.5	− 2485	−19.5	× 61 / 437	−2.7
5	44,426	2486.8	− 2528	−41.2	× 59 / 437	−5.6
6	44,427	2526.8	− 2552	−25.2	× 68 / 437	−3.9
7	44,428	2500.5	− 2567	−66.5	× 59 / 437	−9
8	44,429	2498.5	− 2586	−87.5	× 62 / 437	−12.4
11	44,430	2501.3	− 2628	−126.7	× 74 / 437	−21.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,410	2413.1	− 2436	−22.9	× 56 / 417	−3.1
4	44,411	2464.1	− 2485	−20.9	× 55 / 417	−2.8
5	44,412	2493.9	− 2528	−34.1	× 57 / 417	−4.7
6	44,413	2520.7	− 2552	−31.3	× 59 / 417	−4.4
7	44,414	2497.4	− 2567	−69.6	× 66 / 417	−11
8	44,415	2517.0	− 2586	−69	× 60 / 417	−9.9
11	44,416	2510.2	− 2628	−117.8	× 64 / 417	−18.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,253	2433.3	− 2436	−2.7	× 54 / 411	−0.4
4	44,254	2445.9	− 2485	−39.1	× 54 / 411	−5.1
5	44,255	2489.9	− 2528	−38.1	× 51 / 411	−4.7
6	44,256	2535.0	− 2552	−17	× 59 / 411	−2.4
7	44,257	2494.5	− 2567	−72.5	× 63 / 411	−11.1
8	44,258	2521.9	− 2586	−64.1	× 64 / 411	−10
11	44,259	2546.9	− 2628	−81.1	× 66 / 411	−13
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,983	2412.7	− 2436	−23.3	× 57 / 411	−3.2
4	43,984	2477.2	− 2485	−7.8	× 59 / 411	−1.1
5	43,985	2488.6	− 2528	−39.4	× 58 / 411	−5.6
6	43,986	2526.8	− 2552	−25.2	× 56 / 411	−3.4
7	43,987	2507.8	− 2567	−59.2	× 58 / 411	−8.4
8	43,988	2509.3	− 2586	−76.7	× 59 / 411	−11
11	43,989	2519.9	− 2628	−108.1	× 64 / 411	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,854	2430.9	− 2436	−5.1	× 42 / 375	−0.6
4	43,855	2454.3	− 2485	−30.7	× 61 / 375	−5
5	43,856	2502.8	− 2528	−25.2	× 59 / 375	−4
6	43,857	2509.6	− 2552	−42.4	× 56 / 375	−6.3
7	43,858	2494.6	− 2567	−72.4	× 52 / 375	−10
8	43,859	2515.8	− 2586	−70.2	× 53 / 375	−9.9
11	43,860	2544.7	− 2628	−83.3	× 52 / 375	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −45, −49, −39, −49, −52, −57, −54, −47, −50, −47 → −48.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 5.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.3 × 2.66 = 14.1. Upper limit −34.8, lower limit −63.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Calistoga Joint Unified