San Antonio Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2476 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2478 vs. 2485.
6th The average 6th grader scores 27 points under the grade 4 bar. 2458 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores just under the grade 5 bar. 2527 vs. 2528. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 17 points under the grade 5 bar. 2512 vs. 2528. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	46,260	2405.4	− 2436	−30.6	× 17 / 115	−4.5
4	46,261	2439.5	− 2485	−45.5	× 24 / 115	−9.5
5	46,264	2466.5	− 2528	−61.5	× 18 / 115	−9.6
6	46,265	2473.8	− 2552	−78.2	× 13 / 115	−8.8
7	46,268	2548.2	− 2567	−18.8	× 24 / 115	−3.9
8	46,269	2564.3	− 2586	−21.7	× 19 / 115	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,966	2364.1	− 2436	−71.9	× 19 / 115	−11.9
4	42,967	2446.2	− 2485	−38.8	× 13 / 115	−4.4
5	42,969	2436.9	− 2528	−91.1	× 24 / 115	−19
6	42,971	2491.8	− 2552	−60.2	× 18 / 115	−9.4
7	42,974	2532.5	− 2567	−34.5	× 18 / 115	−5.4
8	42,976	2557.8	− 2586	−28.2	× 23 / 115	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,036	2340.1	− 2436	−95.9	× 12 / 111	−10.4
4	44,038	2420.4	− 2485	−64.6	× 25 / 111	−14.5
5	44,041	2426.2	− 2528	−101.8	× 14 / 111	−12.8
6	44,042	2452.4	− 2552	−99.6	× 26 / 111	−23.3
7	44,045	2539.7	− 2567	−27.3	× 15 / 111	−3.7
8	44,046	2487.4	− 2586	−98.6	× 19 / 111	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−82

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,054	2368.5	− 2436	−67.5	× 12 / 81	−10
4	44,055	2380.1	− 2485	−104.9	× 12 / 81	−15.5
5	44,057	2407.6	− 2528	−120.4	× 20 / 81	−29.7
6	44,059	2480.1	− 2552	−71.9	× 12 / 81	−10.7
7	44,061	2495.1	− 2567	−71.9	× 25 / 81	−22.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	44,187	2467.6	− 2528	−60.4	× 13 / 50	−15.7
6	44,188	2427.4	− 2552	−124.6	× 16 / 50	−39.9
8	44,190	2500.4	− 2586	−85.6	× 21 / 50	−36
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−92

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,945	2400.7	− 2436	−35.3	× 20 / 80	−8.8
4	43,946	2432.7	− 2485	−52.3	× 15 / 80	−9.8
5	43,947	2399.3	− 2528	−128.7	× 16 / 80	−25.7
6	43,948	2480.7	− 2552	−71.3	× 14 / 80	−12.5
8	43,950	2475.9	− 2586	−110.1	× 15 / 80	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−77

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,933	2398.1	− 2436	−37.9	× 17 / 90	−7.2
4	43,934	2440.6	− 2485	−44.4	× 20 / 90	−9.9
5	43,935	2443.1	− 2528	−84.9	× 15 / 90	−14.2
6	43,936	2438.6	− 2552	−113.4	× 14 / 90	−17.6
7	43,937	2489.7	− 2567	−77.3	× 13 / 90	−11.2
8	43,938	2453.5	− 2586	−132.5	× 11 / 90	−16.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,759	2374.2	− 2436	−61.8	× 12 / 95	−7.8
4	43,760	2446.5	− 2485	−38.5	× 17 / 95	−6.9
5	43,761	2488.8	− 2528	−39.2	× 20 / 95	−8.3
6	43,762	2455.9	− 2552	−96.1	× 14 / 95	−14.2
7	43,763	2448.8	− 2567	−118.2	× 17 / 95	−21.2
8	43,764	2493.3	− 2586	−92.7	× 15 / 95	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,508	2395.7	− 2436	−40.3	× 20 / 90	−9
5	43,510	2432.1	− 2528	−95.9	× 16 / 90	−17
6	43,511	2536.5	− 2552	−15.5	× 19 / 90	−3.3
7	43,512	2553.1	− 2567	−13.9	× 14 / 90	−2.2
8	43,513	2533.8	− 2586	−52.2	× 21 / 90	−12.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,394	2475.6	− 2436	39.6	× 12 / 80	5.9
4	43,395	2478.1	− 2485	−6.9	× 20 / 80	−1.7
6	43,397	2458.2	− 2552	−93.8	× 15 / 80	−17.6
7	43,398	2526.8	− 2567	−40.2	× 20 / 80	−10.1
8	43,399	2511.5	− 2586	−74.5	× 13 / 80	−12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −40, −56, −82, −88, −92, −77, −76, −73, −44, −36 → −66.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 26 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2022: 15 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 29 · 2025→2026: 8 → average 12
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12 × 2.66 = 31.9. Upper limit −34.5, lower limit −98.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.