Surprise Valley Joint Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	44,963	2436.1	− 2436	0.1	× 16 / 27	0.1
11	44,975	2497.5	− 2628	−130.5	× 11 / 27	−53.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	41,673	2440.9	− 2485	−44.1	× 16 / 16	−44.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,704	2446.6	− 2436	10.6	× 12 / 27	4.7
5	42,709	2495.5	− 2528	−32.5	× 15 / 27	−18.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	42,722	2474.1	− 2485	−10.9	× 14 / 26	−5.9
6	42,726	2522.4	− 2552	−29.6	× 12 / 26	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	42,837	2446.5	− 2436	10.5	× 12 / 49	2.6
4	42,838	2512.0	− 2485	27	× 12 / 49	6.6
5	42,839	2517.6	− 2528	−10.4	× 12 / 49	−2.5
7	42,841	2514.0	− 2567	−53	× 13 / 49	−14.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	41,719	2509.5	− 2528	−18.5	× 14 / 29	−8.9
7	41,721	2538.5	− 2567	−28.5	× 15 / 29	−14.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	42,575	2477.3	− 2552	−74.7	× 11 / 35	−23.5
7	42,576	2556.4	− 2567	−10.6	× 11 / 35	−3.3
8	42,577	2508.7	− 2586	−77.3	× 13 / 35	−28.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	42,597	2498.9	− 2567	−68.1	× 12 / 23	−35.5
11	42,599	2536.4	− 2628	−91.6	× 11 / 23	−43.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
8	42,433	2460.0	− 2586	−126	× 13 / 13	−126
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−126

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	42,090	2447.9	− 2485	−37.1	× 12 / 24	−18.6
11	42,095	2559.2	− 2628	−68.8	× 12 / 24	−34.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −53, −44, −13, −20, −7, −24, −56, −79, −126, −53 → −47.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 31 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2021: 17 · 2021→2022: 32 · 2022→2023: 23 · 2023→2024: 47 · 2024→2026: 73 → average 28
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 28 × 2.66 = 74.5. Upper limit 27, lower limit −122.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Surprise Valley Joint Unified