Atwater Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,887	2409.8	− 2436	−26.2	× 471 / 3097	−4
4	43,890	2433.9	− 2485	−51.1	× 543 / 3097	−9
5	43,891	2459.8	− 2528	−68.2	× 497 / 3097	−10.9
6	43,894	2488.3	− 2552	−63.7	× 534 / 3097	−11
7	43,895	2495.4	− 2567	−71.6	× 518 / 3097	−12
8	43,897	2503.8	− 2586	−82.2	× 534 / 3097	−14.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,584	2424.3	− 2436	−11.7	× 541 / 3149	−2
4	40,585	2449.9	− 2485	−35.1	× 506 / 3149	−5.6
5	40,588	2470.1	− 2528	−57.9	× 555 / 3149	−10.2
6	40,589	2506.0	− 2552	−46	× 517 / 3149	−7.6
7	40,591	2505.4	− 2567	−61.6	× 522 / 3149	−10.2
8	40,594	2507.0	− 2586	−79	× 508 / 3149	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,586	2423.2	− 2436	−12.8	× 548 / 3224	−2.2
4	41,588	2450.2	− 2485	−34.8	× 548 / 3224	−5.9
5	41,591	2473.7	− 2528	−54.3	× 516 / 3224	−8.7
6	41,592	2506.6	− 2552	−45.4	× 574 / 3224	−8.1
7	41,595	2514.3	− 2567	−52.7	× 514 / 3224	−8.4
8	41,597	2516.0	− 2586	−70	× 524 / 3224	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−45

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,622	2424.7	− 2436	−11.3	× 530 / 3264	−1.8
4	41,623	2454.3	− 2485	−30.7	× 558 / 3264	−5.2
5	41,626	2483.3	− 2528	−44.7	× 552 / 3264	−7.6
6	41,627	2511.4	− 2552	−40.6	× 531 / 3264	−6.6
7	41,630	2516.9	− 2567	−50.1	× 580 / 3264	−8.9
8	41,631	2510.9	− 2586	−75.1	× 513 / 3264	−11.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,766	2431.4	− 2436	−4.6	× 563 / 3326	−0.8
4	41,767	2455.7	− 2485	−29.3	× 522 / 3326	−4.6
5	41,768	2484.6	− 2528	−43.4	× 559 / 3326	−7.3
6	41,769	2505.2	− 2552	−46.8	× 565 / 3326	−8
7	41,770	2511.6	− 2567	−55.4	× 541 / 3326	−9
8	41,771	2512.9	− 2586	−73.1	× 576 / 3326	−12.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,513	2413.2	− 2436	−22.8	× 529 / 3231	−3.7
4	41,514	2439.5	− 2485	−45.5	× 555 / 3231	−7.8
5	41,515	2476.9	− 2528	−51.1	× 530 / 3231	−8.4
6	41,516	2505.8	− 2552	−46.2	× 548 / 3231	−7.8
7	41,517	2486.4	− 2567	−80.6	× 537 / 3231	−13.4
8	41,518	2495.1	− 2586	−90.9	× 532 / 3231	−15
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,546	2424.7	− 2436	−11.3	× 535 / 3237	−1.9
4	41,547	2449.1	− 2485	−35.9	× 518 / 3237	−5.7
5	41,548	2473.8	− 2528	−54.2	× 560 / 3237	−9.4
6	41,549	2503.2	− 2552	−48.8	× 535 / 3237	−8.1
7	41,550	2496.3	− 2567	−70.7	× 561 / 3237	−12.3
8	41,551	2487.5	− 2586	−98.5	× 528 / 3237	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,371	2418.7	− 2436	−17.3	× 509 / 3265	−2.7
4	41,372	2449.3	− 2485	−35.7	× 540 / 3265	−5.9
5	41,373	2476.7	− 2528	−51.3	× 534 / 3265	−8.4
6	41,374	2494.3	− 2552	−57.7	× 547 / 3265	−9.7
7	41,375	2506.5	− 2567	−60.5	× 556 / 3265	−10.3
8	41,376	2489.2	− 2586	−96.8	× 579 / 3265	−17.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,134	2419.8	− 2436	−16.2	× 531 / 3228	−2.7
4	41,135	2454.7	− 2485	−30.3	× 498 / 3228	−4.7
5	41,136	2473.5	− 2528	−54.5	× 554 / 3228	−9.4
6	41,137	2499.4	− 2552	−52.6	× 544 / 3228	−8.9
7	41,138	2493.2	− 2567	−73.8	× 554 / 3228	−12.7
8	41,139	2508.9	− 2586	−77.1	× 547 / 3228	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,040	2418.9	− 2436	−17.1	× 550 / 3214	−2.9
4	41,041	2453.5	− 2485	−31.5	× 524 / 3214	−5.1
5	41,042	2477.3	− 2528	−50.7	× 502 / 3214	−7.9
6	41,043	2495.8	− 2552	−56.2	× 540 / 3214	−9.4
7	41,044	2492.2	− 2567	−74.8	× 558 / 3214	−13
8	41,045	2500.3	− 2586	−85.7	× 540 / 3214	−14.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −61, −48, −45, −42, −42, −56, −53, −54, −51, −53 → −50.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 3 · 2025→2026: 2 → average 4.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.7 × 2.66 = 12.5. Upper limit −38, lower limit −63.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Atwater Elementary