North Fork Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 80 points under the grade 3 bar. 2356 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 26 points under the grade 4 bar. 2459 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 29 points under the grade 3 bar. 2407 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 37 points under the grade 4 bar. 2448 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores 16 points under the grade 6 bar. 2536 vs. 2552. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader meets the grade 8 bar. 2602 vs. 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,635	2400.7	− 2436	−35.3	× 33 / 168	−6.9
4	41,638	2453.7	− 2485	−31.3	× 23 / 168	−4.3
5	41,639	2447.3	− 2528	−80.7	× 34 / 168	−16.3
6	41,642	2472.4	− 2552	−79.6	× 27 / 168	−12.8
7	41,643	2495.9	− 2567	−71.1	× 30 / 168	−12.7
8	41,646	2478.4	− 2586	−107.6	× 21 / 168	−13.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,548	2403.1	− 2436	−32.9	× 32 / 164	−6.4
4	38,550	2409.0	− 2485	−76	× 32 / 164	−14.8
5	38,551	2474.4	− 2528	−53.6	× 20 / 164	−6.5
6	38,553	2435.9	− 2552	−116.1	× 29 / 164	−20.5
7	38,556	2521.9	− 2567	−45.1	× 27 / 164	−7.4
8	38,558	2577.9	− 2586	−8.1	× 24 / 164	−1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,476	2413.5	− 2436	−22.5	× 30 / 163	−4.1
4	39,478	2437.9	− 2485	−47.1	× 31 / 163	−9
5	39,481	2451.2	− 2528	−76.8	× 33 / 163	−15.5
6	39,482	2452.6	− 2552	−99.4	× 18 / 163	−11
7	39,484	2499.6	− 2567	−67.4	× 25 / 163	−10.3
8	39,486	2553.4	− 2586	−32.6	× 26 / 163	−5.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,509	2356.1	− 2436	−79.9	× 29 / 157	−14.8
4	39,512	2466.6	− 2485	−18.4	× 28 / 157	−3.3
5	39,513	2443.1	− 2528	−84.9	× 27 / 157	−14.6
6	39,516	2476.2	− 2552	−75.8	× 31 / 157	−15
7	39,517	2557.9	− 2567	−9.1	× 19 / 157	−1.1
8	39,520	2573.3	− 2586	−12.7	× 23 / 157	−1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−51

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,664	2355.3	− 2436	−80.7	× 29 / 165	−14.2
4	39,665	2402.3	− 2485	−82.7	× 28 / 165	−14
5	39,666	2448.3	− 2528	−79.7	× 31 / 165	−15
6	39,667	2477.6	− 2552	−74.4	× 28 / 165	−12.6
7	39,668	2574.4	− 2567	7.4	× 30 / 165	1.3
8	39,669	2608.8	− 2586	22.8	× 19 / 165	2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,455	2369.7	− 2436	−66.3	× 17 / 134	−8.4
4	39,456	2458.1	− 2485	−26.9	× 22 / 134	−4.4
5	39,457	2411.7	− 2528	−116.3	× 27 / 134	−23.4
6	39,458	2471.2	− 2552	−80.8	× 20 / 134	−12.1
7	39,459	2474.6	− 2567	−92.4	× 21 / 134	−14.5
8	39,460	2477.2	− 2586	−108.8	× 27 / 134	−21.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,516	2390.3	− 2436	−45.7	× 26 / 135	−8.8
4	39,517	2435.0	− 2485	−50	× 12 / 135	−4.4
5	39,518	2475.9	− 2528	−52.1	× 27 / 135	−10.4
6	39,519	2401.7	− 2552	−150.3	× 25 / 135	−27.8
7	39,520	2461.6	− 2567	−105.4	× 21 / 135	−16.4
8	39,521	2472.8	− 2586	−113.2	× 24 / 135	−20.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,335	2354.3	− 2436	−81.7	× 20 / 122	−13.4
4	39,336	2431.6	− 2485	−53.4	× 15 / 122	−6.6
5	39,337	2471.1	− 2528	−56.9	× 17 / 122	−7.9
6	39,338	2471.3	− 2552	−80.7	× 24 / 122	−15.9
7	39,339	2504.0	− 2567	−63	× 23 / 122	−11.9
8	39,340	2481.2	− 2586	−104.8	× 23 / 122	−19.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,108	2428.2	− 2436	−7.8	× 23 / 129	−1.4
4	39,109	2417.7	− 2485	−67.3	× 19 / 129	−9.9
5	39,110	2471.8	− 2528	−56.2	× 18 / 129	−7.8
6	39,111	2513.8	− 2552	−38.2	× 17 / 129	−5
7	39,112	2536.1	− 2567	−30.9	× 25 / 129	−6
8	39,113	2509.3	− 2586	−76.7	× 27 / 129	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,038	2356.0	− 2436	−80	× 22 / 121	−14.5
4	39,039	2459.3	− 2485	−25.7	× 25 / 121	−5.3
5	39,040	2406.8	− 2528	−121.2	× 20 / 121	−20
6	39,041	2448.4	− 2552	−103.6	× 16 / 121	−13.7
7	39,042	2536.2	− 2567	−30.8	× 17 / 121	−4.3
8	39,043	2601.7	− 2586	15.7	× 21 / 121	2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −66, −57, −55, −51, −52, −85, −88, −75, −46, −55 → −63
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 33 · 2022→2023: 3 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 29 · 2025→2026: 9 → average 11.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.4 × 2.66 = 30.3. Upper limit −32.7, lower limit −93.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.