Da Vinci Connect: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 11.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 26 points under the grade 3 bar. 2410 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 17 points under the grade 4 bar. 2468 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2478 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2555 vs. 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores just under the grade 7 bar. 2562 vs. 2567.
8th The average 8th grader meets the grade 8 bar. 2596 vs. 2586.
11th The average 11th grader scores just under the grade 7 bar. 2563 vs. 2567. The 11th-grade bar is 2628.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,945	2426.7	− 2436	−9.3	× 29 / 156	−1.7
4	40,947	2471.0	− 2485	−14	× 41 / 156	−3.7
5	40,949	2512.9	− 2528	−15.1	× 31 / 156	−3
6	40,951	2534.7	− 2552	−17.3	× 16 / 156	−1.8
7	40,953	2586.7	− 2567	19.7	× 19 / 156	2.4
8	40,955	2573.4	− 2586	−12.6	× 20 / 156	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	37,832	2429.8	− 2436	−6.2	× 38 / 187	−1.3
4	37,834	2478.7	− 2485	−6.3	× 35 / 187	−1.2
5	37,837	2510.6	− 2528	−17.4	× 42 / 187	−3.9
6	37,839	2550.5	− 2552	−1.5	× 33 / 187	−0.3
7	37,841	2588.9	− 2567	21.9	× 18 / 187	2.1
8	37,843	2608.0	− 2586	22	× 21 / 187	2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,707	2466.9	− 2436	30.9	× 45 / 214	6.5
4	38,708	2486.7	− 2485	1.7	× 37 / 214	0.3
5	38,710	2529.4	− 2528	1.4	× 36 / 214	0.2
6	38,712	2568.6	− 2552	16.6	× 39 / 214	3
7	38,714	2563.5	− 2567	−3.5	× 35 / 214	−0.6
8	38,716	2614.5	− 2586	28.5	× 22 / 214	2.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,681	2490.7	− 2436	54.7	× 36 / 248	7.9
4	38,683	2499.6	− 2485	14.6	× 53 / 248	3.1
5	38,685	2500.0	− 2528	−28	× 31 / 248	−3.5
6	38,687	2565.3	− 2552	13.3	× 43 / 248	2.3
7	38,689	2595.3	− 2567	28.3	× 43 / 248	4.9
8	38,691	2572.8	− 2586	−13.2	× 42 / 248	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,852	2462.9	− 2436	26.9	× 33 / 229	3.9
4	38,853	2519.6	− 2485	34.6	× 29 / 229	4.4
5	38,854	2521.5	− 2528	−6.5	× 49 / 229	−1.4
6	38,855	2566.0	− 2552	14	× 43 / 229	2.6
7	38,856	2595.9	− 2567	28.9	× 35 / 229	4.4
8	38,857	2642.3	− 2586	56.3	× 40 / 229	9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						24

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,654	2437.1	− 2436	1.1	× 43 / 310	0.2
4	38,655	2485.7	− 2485	0.7	× 40 / 310	0.1
5	38,656	2515.9	− 2528	−12.1	× 37 / 310	−1.4
6	38,657	2563.6	− 2552	11.6	× 52 / 310	1.9
7	38,658	2595.1	− 2567	28.1	× 51 / 310	4.6
8	38,659	2607.9	− 2586	21.9	× 56 / 310	4
11	38,660	2606.9	− 2628	−21.1	× 31 / 310	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,713	2409.9	− 2436	−26.1	× 39 / 374	−2.7
4	38,714	2490.1	− 2485	5.1	× 44 / 374	0.6
5	38,715	2513.4	− 2528	−14.6	× 47 / 374	−1.8
6	38,716	2549.3	− 2552	−2.7	× 55 / 374	−0.4
7	38,717	2582.9	− 2567	15.9	× 71 / 374	3
8	38,718	2576.7	− 2586	−9.3	× 59 / 374	−1.5
11	38,719	2518.4	− 2628	−109.6	× 59 / 374	−17.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,545	2403.6	− 2436	−32.4	× 49 / 459	−3.5
4	38,546	2459.8	− 2485	−25.2	× 44 / 459	−2.4
5	38,547	2496.8	− 2528	−31.2	× 49 / 459	−3.3
6	38,548	2529.5	− 2552	−22.5	× 73 / 459	−3.6
7	38,549	2568.2	− 2567	1.2	× 58 / 459	0.2
8	38,550	2566.1	− 2586	−19.9	× 68 / 459	−2.9
11	38,551	2561.7	− 2628	−66.3	× 118 / 459	−17
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,326	2422.5	− 2436	−13.5	× 49 / 435	−1.5
4	38,327	2452.4	− 2485	−32.6	× 50 / 435	−3.7
5	38,328	2515.8	− 2528	−12.2	× 46 / 435	−1.3
6	38,329	2547.5	− 2552	−4.5	× 71 / 435	−0.7
7	38,330	2570.0	− 2567	3	× 76 / 435	0.5
8	38,331	2579.2	− 2586	−6.8	× 62 / 435	−1
11	38,332	2534.1	− 2628	−93.9	× 81 / 435	−17.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	38,274	2410.0	− 2436	−26	× 48 / 447	−2.8
4	38,275	2468.3	− 2485	−16.7	× 43 / 447	−1.6
5	38,276	2478.0	− 2528	−50	× 51 / 447	−5.7
6	38,277	2554.9	− 2552	2.9	× 62 / 447	0.4
7	38,278	2562.0	− 2567	−5	× 70 / 447	−0.8
8	38,279	2596.4	− 2586	10.4	× 72 / 447	1.7
11	38,280	2563.1	− 2628	−64.9	× 101 / 447	−14.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −9, −2, 12, 13, 24, 7, −20, −33, −25, −23 → −5.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 14 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 17 · 2022→2023: 27 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 2 → average 11.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.1 × 2.66 = 29.5. Upper limit 23.9, lower limit −35.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.