Olita Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 47 points under the grade 3 bar. 2389 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 40 points under the grade 4 bar. 2445 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2480 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 24 points under the grade 5 bar. 2504 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

2021 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,364	2417.6	− 2436	−18.4	× 70 / 282	−4.6
4	34,366	2457.9	− 2485	−27.1	× 66 / 282	−6.3
5	34,368	2488.8	− 2528	−39.2	× 73 / 282	−10.1
6	34,370	2546.4	− 2552	−5.6	× 73 / 282	−1.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,139	2431.2	− 2436	−4.8	× 59 / 268	−1.1
4	32,142	2469.9	− 2485	−15.1	× 70 / 268	−3.9
5	32,144	2505.5	− 2528	−22.5	× 66 / 268	−5.5
6	32,145	2533.5	− 2552	−18.5	× 73 / 268	−5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,676	2429.9	− 2436	−6.1	× 58 / 249	−1.4
4	32,678	2476.0	− 2485	−9	× 59 / 249	−2.1
5	32,680	2525.5	− 2528	−2.5	× 70 / 249	−0.7
6	32,681	2545.4	− 2552	−6.6	× 62 / 249	−1.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,694	2426.3	− 2436	−9.7	× 50 / 252	−1.9
4	32,696	2468.0	− 2485	−17	× 67 / 252	−4.5
5	32,698	2516.9	− 2528	−11.1	× 65 / 252	−2.9
6	32,700	2554.8	− 2552	2.8	× 70 / 252	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,874	2425.3	− 2436	−10.7	× 64 / 259	−2.6
4	32,875	2481.8	− 2485	−3.2	× 53 / 259	−0.7
5	32,876	2518.3	− 2528	−9.7	× 72 / 259	−2.7
6	32,877	2550.2	− 2552	−1.8	× 70 / 259	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,079	2389.4	− 2436	−46.6	× 48 / 241	−9.3
4	32,080	2445.0	− 2485	−40	× 62 / 241	−10.3
5	32,081	2479.7	− 2528	−48.3	× 65 / 241	−13
6	32,082	2504.3	− 2552	−47.7	× 66 / 241	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −23, −16, −6, −9, −6, −46 → −17.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2021: 40 → average 12.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 12.6 × 2.66 = 33.5. Upper limit 15.8, lower limit −51.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21.