Jordan Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 41 points under the grade 3 bar. 2395 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 47 points under the grade 4 bar. 2438 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 42 points under the grade 5 bar. 2486 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 22 points under the grade 6 bar. 2530 vs. 2552.

2021 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	34,334	2431.6	− 2436	−4.4	× 56 / 233	−1.1
4	34,336	2452.4	− 2485	−32.6	× 48 / 233	−6.7
5	34,338	2506.3	− 2528	−21.7	× 59 / 233	−5.5
6	34,340	2550.1	− 2552	−1.9	× 70 / 233	−0.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,110	2449.2	− 2436	13.2	× 62 / 223	3.7
4	32,111	2477.2	− 2485	−7.8	× 50 / 223	−1.7
5	32,113	2488.3	− 2528	−39.7	× 47 / 223	−8.4
6	32,116	2569.7	− 2552	17.7	× 64 / 223	5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,646	2443.1	− 2436	7.1	× 49 / 212	1.6
4	32,648	2489.2	− 2485	4.2	× 61 / 212	1.2
5	32,650	2507.0	− 2528	−21	× 52 / 212	−5.2
6	32,652	2527.1	− 2552	−24.9	× 50 / 212	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−8

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,664	2442.0	− 2436	6	× 51 / 234	1.3
4	32,666	2489.3	− 2485	4.3	× 55 / 234	1
5	32,668	2509.1	− 2528	−18.9	× 67 / 234	−5.4
6	32,670	2543.0	− 2552	−9	× 61 / 234	−2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,844	2428.4	− 2436	−7.6	× 43 / 225	−1.5
4	32,845	2500.2	− 2485	15.2	× 54 / 225	3.6
5	32,846	2537.1	− 2528	9.1	× 59 / 225	2.4
6	32,847	2560.8	− 2552	8.8	× 69 / 225	2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	32,049	2394.8	− 2436	−41.2	× 56 / 228	−10.1
4	32,050	2438.0	− 2485	−47	× 57 / 228	−11.8
5	32,051	2486.2	− 2528	−41.8	× 48 / 228	−8.8
6	32,052	2530.2	− 2552	−21.8	× 67 / 228	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −14, −1, −8, −5, 7, −37 → −9.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2021: 44 → average 15.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15.8 × 2.66 = 42. Upper limit 32.3, lower limit −51.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21.