El Sereno Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 21 points under the grade 3 bar. 2415 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 10 points under the grade 4 bar. 2475 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 36 points under the grade 5 bar. 2493 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 17 points under the grade 4 bar. 2468 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	30,170	2395.8	− 2436	−40.2	× 51 / 220	−9.3
4	30,171	2461.0	− 2485	−24	× 58 / 220	−6.3
5	30,174	2432.1	− 2528	−95.9	× 63 / 220	−27.5
6	30,175	2488.7	− 2552	−63.3	× 48 / 220	−13.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,389	2431.6	− 2436	−4.4	× 54 / 210	−1.1
4	28,392	2465.4	− 2485	−19.6	× 48 / 210	−4.5
5	28,393	2477.6	− 2528	−50.4	× 59 / 210	−14.2
6	28,396	2459.1	− 2552	−92.9	× 49 / 210	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	28,957	2432.6	− 2436	−3.4	× 52 / 190	−0.9
4	28,958	2455.8	− 2485	−29.2	× 48 / 190	−7.4
5	28,961	2470.6	− 2528	−57.4	× 48 / 190	−14.5
6	28,962	2495.5	− 2552	−56.5	× 42 / 190	−12.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,006	2446.8	− 2436	10.8	× 54 / 191	3.1
4	29,008	2465.1	− 2485	−19.9	× 51 / 191	−5.3
5	29,010	2483.4	− 2528	−44.6	× 46 / 191	−10.7
6	29,012	2483.8	− 2552	−68.2	× 40 / 191	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,186	2449.5	− 2436	13.5	× 47 / 187	3.4
4	29,187	2475.5	− 2485	−9.5	× 50 / 187	−2.5
5	29,188	2465.8	− 2528	−62.2	× 52 / 187	−17.3
6	29,189	2502.5	− 2552	−49.5	× 38 / 187	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,221	2419.8	− 2436	−16.2	× 35 / 155	−3.7
4	29,222	2457.7	− 2485	−27.3	× 38 / 155	−6.7
5	29,223	2462.1	− 2528	−65.9	× 43 / 155	−18.3
6	29,224	2454.0	− 2552	−98	× 39 / 155	−24.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,280	2378.3	− 2436	−57.7	× 29 / 136	−12.3
4	29,281	2481.2	− 2485	−3.8	× 33 / 136	−0.9
5	29,282	2473.6	− 2528	−54.4	× 37 / 136	−14.8
6	29,283	2476.6	− 2552	−75.4	× 37 / 136	−20.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,146	2407.3	− 2436	−28.7	× 44 / 133	−9.5
4	29,147	2448.2	− 2485	−36.8	× 29 / 133	−8
5	29,148	2498.9	− 2528	−29.1	× 31 / 133	−6.8
6	29,149	2447.7	− 2552	−104.3	× 29 / 133	−22.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,009	2416.3	− 2436	−19.7	× 29 / 127	−4.5
4	29,010	2469.1	− 2485	−15.9	× 41 / 127	−5.1
5	29,011	2456.5	− 2528	−71.5	× 29 / 127	−16.3
6	29,012	2514.8	− 2552	−37.2	× 28 / 127	−8.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	29,003	2415.0	− 2436	−21	× 29 / 117	−5.2
4	29,004	2475.1	− 2485	−9.9	× 27 / 117	−2.3
5	29,005	2492.5	− 2528	−35.5	× 37 / 117	−11.2
6	29,006	2467.9	− 2552	−84.1	× 24 / 117	−17.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−36

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −57, −41, −35, −27, −27, −53, −49, −47, −34, −36 → −40.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 8 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 13 · 2025→2026: 2 → average 8.6
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.6 × 2.66 = 22.9. Upper limit −17.7, lower limit −63.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.