Keppel Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	24,781	2393.0	− 2436	−43	× 289 / 1819	−6.8
4	24,784	2417.7	− 2485	−67.3	× 284 / 1819	−10.5
5	24,785	2443.8	− 2528	−84.2	× 295 / 1819	−13.7
6	24,788	2476.6	− 2552	−75.4	× 321 / 1819	−13.3
7	24,789	2503.8	− 2567	−63.2	× 307 / 1819	−10.7
8	24,792	2507.3	− 2586	−78.7	× 323 / 1819	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,078	2388.3	− 2436	−47.7	× 317 / 1862	−8.1
4	23,079	2420.4	− 2485	−64.6	× 299 / 1862	−10.4
5	23,081	2439.1	− 2528	−88.9	× 301 / 1862	−14.4
6	23,083	2465.9	− 2552	−86.1	× 292 / 1862	−13.5
7	23,086	2491.0	− 2567	−76	× 336 / 1862	−13.7
8	23,087	2510.8	− 2586	−75.2	× 317 / 1862	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,529	2403.7	− 2436	−32.3	× 250 / 1828	−4.4
4	23,531	2418.6	− 2485	−66.4	× 318 / 1828	−11.6
5	23,532	2439.2	− 2528	−88.8	× 310 / 1828	−15.1
6	23,535	2464.5	− 2552	−87.5	× 307 / 1828	−14.7
7	23,536	2486.6	− 2567	−80.4	× 301 / 1828	−13.2
8	23,538	2509.3	− 2586	−76.7	× 342 / 1828	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,537	2398.8	− 2436	−37.2	× 294 / 1806	−6.1
4	23,539	2441.2	− 2485	−43.8	× 262 / 1806	−6.4
5	23,541	2443.3	− 2528	−84.7	× 324 / 1806	−15.2
6	23,543	2470.7	− 2552	−81.3	× 321 / 1806	−14.5
7	23,545	2487.4	− 2567	−79.6	× 308 / 1806	−13.6
8	23,547	2501.0	− 2586	−85	× 297 / 1806	−14
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,712	2399.8	− 2436	−36.2	× 253 / 1746	−5.2
4	23,713	2442.0	− 2485	−43	× 282 / 1746	−6.9
5	23,714	2452.8	− 2528	−75.2	× 271 / 1746	−11.7
6	23,715	2451.4	− 2552	−100.6	× 344 / 1746	−19.8
7	23,716	2490.9	− 2567	−76.1	× 308 / 1746	−13.4
8	23,717	2493.8	− 2586	−92.2	× 288 / 1746	−15.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,655	2383.5	− 2436	−52.5	× 292 / 1730	−8.9
4	23,656	2403.7	− 2485	−81.3	× 274 / 1730	−12.9
5	23,657	2424.3	− 2528	−103.7	× 309 / 1730	−18.5
6	23,658	2442.5	− 2552	−109.5	× 269 / 1730	−17
7	23,659	2463.6	− 2567	−103.4	× 305 / 1730	−18.2
8	23,660	2473.8	− 2586	−112.2	× 281 / 1730	−18.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,618	2378.5	− 2436	−57.5	× 274 / 1723	−9.1
4	23,619	2429.6	− 2485	−55.4	× 293 / 1723	−9.4
5	23,620	2428.1	− 2528	−99.9	× 267 / 1723	−15.5
6	23,621	2434.7	− 2552	−117.3	× 322 / 1723	−21.9
7	23,622	2460.9	− 2567	−106.1	× 269 / 1723	−16.6
8	23,623	2459.6	− 2586	−126.4	× 298 / 1723	−21.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,470	2370.5	− 2436	−65.5	× 267 / 1724	−10.1
4	23,471	2403.0	− 2485	−82	× 287 / 1724	−13.7
5	23,472	2446.1	− 2528	−81.9	× 305 / 1724	−14.5
6	23,473	2443.3	− 2552	−108.7	× 272 / 1724	−17.1
7	23,474	2456.8	− 2567	−110.2	× 322 / 1724	−20.6
8	23,475	2462.1	− 2586	−123.9	× 271 / 1724	−19.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,381	2376.1	− 2436	−59.9	× 288 / 1757	−9.8
4	23,382	2395.8	− 2485	−89.2	× 288 / 1757	−14.6
5	23,383	2429.8	− 2528	−98.2	× 291 / 1757	−16.3
6	23,384	2461.6	− 2552	−90.4	× 303 / 1757	−15.6
7	23,385	2439.6	− 2567	−127.4	× 269 / 1757	−19.5
8	23,386	2444.3	− 2586	−141.7	× 318 / 1757	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−101

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,421	2383.1	− 2436	−52.9	× 251 / 1707	−7.8
4	23,422	2415.7	− 2485	−69.3	× 285 / 1707	−11.6
5	23,423	2407.3	− 2528	−120.7	× 302 / 1707	−21.4
6	23,424	2435.5	− 2552	−116.5	× 303 / 1707	−20.7
7	23,425	2469.1	− 2567	−97.9	× 297 / 1707	−17
8	23,426	2438.6	− 2586	−147.4	× 269 / 1707	−23.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−102

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −69, −73, −73, −70, −72, −94, −94, −95, −101, −102 → −84.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 22 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 6 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 4.3
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.3 × 2.66 = 11.4. Upper limit −72.9, lower limit −95.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Keppel Union Elementary