North Ranchito Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 33 points under the grade 3 bar. 2403 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 40 points under the grade 3 bar. 2396 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 14 points under the grade 4 bar. 2471 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	23,503	2375.9	− 2436	−60.1	× 72 / 255	−17
4	23,504	2408.0	− 2485	−77	× 91 / 255	−27.5
5	23,507	2434.0	− 2528	−94	× 92 / 255	−33.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,038	2377.7	− 2436	−58.3	× 73 / 244	−17.4
4	22,039	2437.8	− 2485	−47.2	× 76 / 244	−14.7
5	22,042	2462.2	− 2528	−65.8	× 95 / 244	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,458	2390.3	− 2436	−45.7	× 72 / 226	−14.6
4	22,460	2437.7	− 2485	−47.3	× 78 / 226	−16.3
5	22,463	2460.3	− 2528	−67.7	× 76 / 226	−22.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,448	2401.5	− 2436	−34.5	× 59 / 210	−9.7
4	22,450	2445.0	− 2485	−40	× 72 / 210	−13.7
5	22,451	2475.3	− 2528	−52.7	× 79 / 210	−19.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,631	2401.1	− 2436	−34.9	× 63 / 200	−11
4	22,632	2459.1	− 2485	−25.9	× 67 / 200	−8.7
5	22,633	2467.7	− 2528	−60.3	× 70 / 200	−21.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,596	2364.0	− 2436	−72	× 58 / 181	−23.1
4	22,597	2440.0	− 2485	−45	× 64 / 181	−15.9
5	22,598	2429.9	− 2528	−98.1	× 59 / 181	−32
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,563	2369.3	− 2436	−66.7	× 50 / 178	−18.7
4	22,564	2446.1	− 2485	−38.9	× 59 / 178	−12.9
5	22,565	2467.4	− 2528	−60.6	× 69 / 178	−23.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,417	2409.0	− 2436	−27	× 53 / 164	−8.7
4	22,418	2419.6	− 2485	−65.4	× 51 / 164	−20.3
5	22,419	2454.1	− 2528	−73.9	× 60 / 164	−27
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,328	2409.2	− 2436	−26.8	× 51 / 155	−8.8
4	22,329	2455.3	− 2485	−29.7	× 53 / 155	−10.2
5	22,330	2443.7	− 2528	−84.3	× 51 / 155	−27.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	22,384	2402.9	− 2436	−33.1	× 48 / 148	−10.7
4	22,385	2395.8	− 2485	−89.2	× 49 / 148	−29.5
5	22,386	2471.0	− 2528	−57	× 51 / 148	−19.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −78, −58, −54, −43, −41, −71, −55, −56, −47, −60 → −56.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 20 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 11 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2022: 30 · 2022→2023: 16 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 9 · 2025→2026: 13 → average 11.8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.8 × 2.66 = 31.4. Upper limit −24.9, lower limit −87.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.