Margaret Heath Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade 3 bar

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 67 points under the grade 3 bar. 2369 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 3 bar. 2435 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 29 points under the grade 3 bar. 2407 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2024 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	21,186	2380.4	− 2436	−55.6	× 81 / 260	−17.3
4	21,189	2437.1	− 2485	−47.9	× 64 / 260	−11.8
5	21,190	2428.7	− 2528	−99.3	× 55 / 260	−21
6	21,193	2478.9	− 2552	−73.1	× 60 / 260	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,093	2395.6	− 2436	−40.4	× 59 / 268	−8.9
4	20,094	2407.7	− 2485	−77.3	× 90 / 268	−26
5	20,096	2465.1	− 2528	−62.9	× 62 / 268	−14.6
6	20,098	2482.5	− 2552	−69.5	× 57 / 268	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,404	2402.3	− 2436	−33.7	× 71 / 273	−8.8
4	20,406	2434.2	− 2485	−50.8	× 53 / 273	−9.9
5	20,409	2410.4	− 2528	−117.6	× 91 / 273	−39.2
6	20,410	2472.4	− 2552	−79.6	× 58 / 273	−16.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,396	2409.5	− 2436	−26.5	× 62 / 261	−6.3
4	20,398	2438.2	− 2485	−46.8	× 69 / 261	−12.4
5	20,400	2460.2	− 2528	−67.8	× 53 / 261	−13.8
6	20,402	2457.1	− 2552	−94.9	× 77 / 261	−28
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,578	2405.2	− 2436	−30.8	× 57 / 236	−7.4
4	20,579	2451.8	− 2485	−33.2	× 57 / 236	−8
5	20,580	2459.2	− 2528	−68.8	× 61 / 236	−17.8
6	20,581	2478.2	− 2552	−73.8	× 61 / 236	−19.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,063	2357.3	− 2436	−78.7	× 58 / 228	−20
4	20,064	2430.2	− 2485	−54.8	× 49 / 228	−11.8
5	20,065	2415.1	− 2528	−112.9	× 64 / 228	−31.7
6	20,066	2500.5	− 2552	−51.5	× 57 / 228	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−76

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,600	2378.5	− 2436	−57.5	× 48 / 148	−18.6
4	20,601	2419.7	− 2485	−65.3	× 51 / 148	−22.5
5	20,602	2441.9	− 2528	−86.1	× 49 / 148	−28.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,557	2412.1	− 2436	−23.9	× 33 / 140	−5.6
4	20,558	2385.6	− 2485	−99.4	× 61 / 140	−43.3
5	20,559	2438.9	− 2528	−89.1	× 46 / 140	−29.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,439	2368.9	− 2436	−67.1	× 59 / 155	−25.5
4	20,440	2435.3	− 2485	−49.7	× 36 / 155	−11.5
5	20,441	2407.0	− 2528	−121	× 60 / 155	−46.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −67, −64, −75, −60, −52, −76, −70, −78, −84 → −69.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 3 · 2016→2017: 11 · 2017→2018: 15 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2021: 24 · 2021→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 6 → average 10.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.1 × 2.66 = 26.9. Upper limit −42.7, lower limit −96.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24.