Fletcher Walker Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

4th The average 4th grader scores 16 points under the grade 4 bar. 2469 vs. 2485.
7th The average 7th grader scores 25 points under the grade 5 bar. 2503 vs. 2528. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 10 points under the grade 3 bar. 2426 vs. 2436. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	20,035	2383.6	− 2436	−52.4	× 17 / 57	−15.6
4	20,038	2465.8	− 2485	−19.2	× 12 / 57	−4
5	20,039	2499.1	− 2528	−28.9	× 13 / 57	−6.6
6	20,041	2519.4	− 2552	−32.6	× 15 / 57	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,014	2471.3	− 2436	35.3	× 12 / 68	6.2
4	19,015	2471.3	− 2485	−13.7	× 23 / 68	−4.6
5	19,017	2491.9	− 2528	−36.1	× 16 / 68	−8.5
6	19,019	2524.4	− 2552	−27.6	× 17 / 68	−6.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
5	19,350	2471.9	− 2528	−56.1	× 19 / 19	−56.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,332	2411.2	− 2436	−24.8	× 11 / 11	−24.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,477	2414.4	− 2436	−21.6	× 17 / 40	−9.2
4	19,478	2473.2	− 2485	−11.8	× 11 / 40	−3.2
5	19,479	2509.1	− 2528	−18.9	× 12 / 40	−5.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,990	2334.1	− 2436	−101.9	× 15 / 42	−36.4
4	18,991	2429.0	− 2485	−56	× 12 / 42	−16
5	18,992	2449.5	− 2528	−78.5	× 15 / 42	−28
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−80

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,524	2344.7	− 2436	−91.3	× 12 / 37	−29.6
4	19,525	2422.7	− 2485	−62.3	× 12 / 37	−20.2
5	19,526	2486.7	− 2528	−41.3	× 13 / 37	−14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,470	2342.6	− 2436	−93.4	× 11 / 51	−20.1
4	19,471	2432.1	− 2485	−52.9	× 16 / 51	−16.6
5	19,472	2480.1	− 2528	−47.9	× 11 / 51	−10.3
6	19,473	2543.5	− 2552	−8.5	× 13 / 51	−2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−49

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,408	2425.2	− 2436	−10.8	× 12 / 65	−2
5	19,410	2453.4	− 2528	−74.6	× 13 / 65	−14.9
6	19,411	2415.5	− 2552	−136.5	× 13 / 65	−27.3
7	19,412	2515.5	− 2567	−51.5	× 15 / 65	−11.9
8	19,413	2468.7	− 2586	−117.3	× 12 / 65	−21.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−78

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	19,369	2414.1	− 2436	−21.9	× 16 / 57	−6.1
6	19,372	2478.2	− 2552	−73.8	× 11 / 57	−14.2
7	19,373	2484.6	− 2567	−82.4	× 17 / 57	−24.6
8	19,374	2521.8	− 2586	−64.2	× 13 / 57	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	19,415	2469.3	− 2485	−15.7	× 15 / 45	−5.2
7	19,418	2503.3	− 2567	−63.7	× 11 / 45	−15.6
8	19,419	2426.4	− 2586	−159.6	× 19 / 45	−67.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−88

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −35, −14, −56, −25, −18, −80, −64, −49, −78, −60, −88 → −51.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 42 · 2017→2018: 31 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 62 · 2021→2022: 16 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 29 · 2024→2025: 18 · 2025→2026: 28 → average 26.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 26.9 × 2.66 = 71.6. Upper limit 20.1, lower limit −123.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.