Joseph M. Simas: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2440 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2477 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 29 points under the grade 5 bar. 2499 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores just under the grade 5 bar. 2521 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,857	2449.5	− 2436	13.5	× 65 / 294	3
4	18,858	2443.6	− 2485	−41.4	× 75 / 294	−10.6
5	18,861	2480.2	− 2528	−47.8	× 85 / 294	−13.8
6	18,862	2496.3	− 2552	−55.7	× 69 / 294	−13.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,859	2432.5	− 2436	−3.5	× 79 / 294	−0.9
4	17,861	2451.5	− 2485	−33.5	× 66 / 294	−7.5
5	17,864	2497.0	− 2528	−31	× 65 / 294	−6.9
6	17,865	2510.3	− 2552	−41.7	× 84 / 294	−11.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,198	2444.7	− 2436	8.7	× 79 / 291	2.4
4	18,199	2497.6	− 2485	12.6	× 78 / 291	3.4
5	18,201	2491.8	− 2528	−36.2	× 69 / 291	−8.6
6	18,204	2540.6	− 2552	−11.4	× 65 / 291	−2.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,213	2455.5	− 2436	19.5	× 73 / 304	4.7
4	18,214	2490.4	− 2485	5.4	× 85 / 304	1.5
5	18,217	2510.5	− 2528	−17.5	× 71 / 304	−4.1
6	18,218	2539.4	− 2552	−12.6	× 75 / 304	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,358	2477.9	− 2436	41.9	× 64 / 289	9.3
4	18,359	2475.4	− 2485	−9.6	× 69 / 289	−2.3
5	18,360	2505.7	− 2528	−22.3	× 82 / 289	−6.3
6	18,361	2564.6	− 2552	12.6	× 74 / 289	3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,909	2400.3	− 2436	−35.7	× 42 / 193	−7.8
4	17,910	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 39 / 193	−7.2
5	17,911	2489.2	− 2528	−38.8	× 68 / 193	−13.7
6	17,912	2517.3	− 2552	−34.7	× 44 / 193	−7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,397	2425.5	− 2436	−10.5	× 87 / 284	−3.2
4	18,398	2473.0	− 2485	−12	× 63 / 284	−2.7
5	18,399	2481.9	− 2528	−46.1	× 60 / 284	−9.7
6	18,400	2523.5	− 2552	−28.5	× 74 / 284	−7.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,340	2449.7	− 2436	13.7	× 64 / 276	3.2
4	18,341	2471.3	− 2485	−13.7	× 81 / 276	−4
5	18,342	2495.5	− 2528	−32.5	× 67 / 276	−7.9
6	18,343	2526.4	− 2552	−25.6	× 64 / 276	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,295	2468.5	− 2436	32.5	× 71 / 289	8
4	18,296	2467.8	− 2485	−17.2	× 69 / 289	−4.1
5	18,297	2485.3	− 2528	−42.7	× 85 / 289	−12.6
6	18,298	2534.6	− 2552	−17.4	× 64 / 289	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,289	2445.9	− 2436	9.9	× 67 / 290	2.3
4	18,290	2495.7	− 2485	10.7	× 66 / 290	2.4
5	18,291	2467.6	− 2528	−60.4	× 68 / 290	−14.2
6	18,292	2525.8	− 2552	−26.2	× 89 / 290	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	18,328	2439.8	− 2436	3.8	× 59 / 272	0.8
4	18,329	2476.9	− 2485	−8.1	× 71 / 272	−2.1
5	18,330	2499.1	− 2528	−28.9	× 76 / 272	−8.1
6	18,331	2521.0	− 2552	−31	× 66 / 272	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −34, −27, −5, −1, 4, −37, −23, −15, −13, −17, −17 → −16.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 22 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2021: 41 · 2021→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 8 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 0 → average 10.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.7 × 2.66 = 28.5. Upper limit 11.7, lower limit −45.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.