South Fork Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 38 points under the grade 3 bar. 2398 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 34 points under the grade 3 bar. 2402 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 38 points under the grade 4 bar. 2447 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 11 points under the grade 4 bar. 2474 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores 36 points under the grade 5 bar. 2492 vs. 2528. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 19 points under the grade 8 bar. 2567 vs. 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,975	2391.6	− 2436	−44.4	× 21 / 48	−19.4
4	17,977	2412.0	− 2485	−73	× 27 / 48	−41.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,981	2384.0	− 2436	−52	× 27 / 156	−9
4	16,984	2437.8	− 2485	−47.2	× 24 / 156	−7.3
5	16,986	2434.3	− 2528	−93.7	× 27 / 156	−16.2
6	16,988	2484.8	− 2552	−67.2	× 21 / 156	−9
7	16,989	2525.9	− 2567	−41.1	× 31 / 156	−8.2
8	16,991	2570.1	− 2586	−15.9	× 26 / 156	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,301	2356.4	− 2436	−79.6	× 29 / 143	−16.1
4	17,304	2473.8	− 2485	−11.2	× 22 / 143	−1.7
5	17,305	2450.4	− 2528	−77.6	× 17 / 143	−9.2
6	17,308	2449.1	− 2552	−102.9	× 27 / 143	−19.4
7	17,310	2523.5	− 2567	−43.5	× 20 / 143	−6.1
8	17,311	2557.5	− 2586	−28.5	× 28 / 143	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,326	2368.5	− 2436	−67.5	× 28 / 142	−13.3
4	17,328	2413.5	− 2485	−71.5	× 34 / 142	−17.1
5	17,330	2450.0	− 2528	−78	× 23 / 142	−12.6
6	17,332	2510.7	− 2552	−41.3	× 15 / 142	−4.4
7	17,334	2470.0	− 2567	−97	× 21 / 142	−14.3
8	17,336	2607.0	− 2586	21	× 21 / 142	3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,471	2411.4	− 2436	−24.6	× 38 / 166	−5.6
4	17,472	2430.4	− 2485	−54.6	× 29 / 166	−9.5
5	17,473	2434.3	− 2528	−93.7	× 38 / 166	−21.4
6	17,474	2518.4	− 2552	−33.6	× 26 / 166	−5.3
7	17,475	2551.9	− 2567	−15.1	× 14 / 166	−1.3
8	17,476	2554.8	− 2586	−31.2	× 21 / 166	−3.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,525	2365.2	− 2436	−70.8	× 29 / 185	−11.1
4	17,526	2438.8	− 2485	−46.2	× 37 / 185	−9.2
5	17,527	2462.3	− 2528	−65.7	× 21 / 185	−7.5
6	17,528	2496.8	− 2552	−55.2	× 42 / 185	−12.5
7	17,529	2448.1	− 2567	−118.9	× 26 / 185	−16.7
8	17,530	2561.2	− 2586	−24.8	× 30 / 185	−4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,467	2375.0	− 2436	−61	× 55 / 220	−15.3
4	17,468	2450.0	− 2485	−35	× 28 / 220	−4.5
5	17,469	2479.5	− 2528	−48.5	× 42 / 220	−9.3
6	17,470	2428.2	− 2552	−123.8	× 29 / 220	−16.3
7	17,471	2515.0	− 2567	−52	× 43 / 220	−10.2
8	17,472	2529.0	− 2586	−57	× 23 / 220	−6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,417	2376.6	− 2436	−59.4	× 38 / 234	−9.6
4	17,418	2418.9	− 2485	−66.1	× 57 / 234	−16.1
5	17,419	2450.8	− 2528	−77.2	× 28 / 234	−9.2
6	17,420	2488.2	− 2552	−63.8	× 41 / 234	−11.2
7	17,421	2468.1	− 2567	−98.9	× 29 / 234	−12.3
8	17,422	2583.4	− 2586	−2.6	× 41 / 234	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,411	2394.7	− 2436	−41.3	× 25 / 234	−4.4
4	17,412	2428.7	− 2485	−56.3	× 42 / 234	−10.1
5	17,413	2434.7	− 2528	−93.3	× 52 / 234	−20.7
6	17,414	2469.9	− 2552	−82.1	× 34 / 234	−11.9
7	17,415	2528.5	− 2567	−38.5	× 51 / 234	−8.4
8	17,416	2569.9	− 2586	−16.1	× 30 / 234	−2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	17,416	2397.8	− 2436	−38.2	× 37 / 239	−5.9
4	17,417	2401.7	− 2485	−83.3	× 30 / 239	−10.5
5	17,418	2447.1	− 2528	−80.9	× 42 / 239	−14.2
6	17,419	2474.2	− 2552	−77.8	× 50 / 239	−16.3
7	17,420	2492.1	− 2567	−74.9	× 33 / 239	−10.3
8	17,421	2567.0	− 2586	−19	× 47 / 239	−3.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −60, −52, −58, −59, −47, −61, −61, −59, −58, −61 → −57.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 12 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 5.2
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.2 × 2.66 = 13.8. Upper limit −43.8, lower limit −71.4.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.