Panama-Buena Vista Union: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	16,309	2407.0	− 2436	−29	× 1847 / 11309	−4.7
4	16,312	2445.1	− 2485	−39.9	× 1865 / 11309	−6.6
5	16,313	2454.3	− 2528	−73.7	× 1868 / 11309	−12.2
6	16,316	2493.3	− 2552	−58.7	× 1893 / 11309	−9.8
7	16,317	2502.6	− 2567	−64.4	× 1898 / 11309	−10.8
8	16,320	2523.5	− 2586	−62.5	× 1938 / 11309	−10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,331	2420.5	− 2436	−15.5	× 1709 / 11297	−2.3
4	15,332	2447.7	− 2485	−37.3	× 1884 / 11297	−6.2
5	15,334	2466.5	− 2528	−61.5	× 1892 / 11297	−10.3
6	15,336	2490.8	− 2552	−61.2	× 1959 / 11297	−10.6
7	15,339	2513.7	− 2567	−53.3	× 1963 / 11297	−9.3
8	15,340	2527.7	− 2586	−58.3	× 1890 / 11297	−9.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,652	2422.5	− 2436	−13.5	× 2010 / 11563	−2.3
4	15,654	2460.3	− 2485	−24.7	× 1736 / 11563	−3.7
5	15,655	2467.1	− 2528	−60.9	× 1905 / 11563	−10
6	15,657	2497.8	− 2552	−54.2	× 1981 / 11563	−9.3
7	15,659	2515.2	− 2567	−51.8	× 1979 / 11563	−8.9
8	15,662	2525.9	− 2586	−60.1	× 1952 / 11563	−10.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,669	2423.5	− 2436	−12.5	× 1905 / 11716	−2
4	15,670	2464.5	− 2485	−20.5	× 2040 / 11716	−3.6
5	15,673	2475.1	− 2528	−52.9	× 1795 / 11716	−8.1
6	15,674	2499.2	− 2552	−52.8	× 1996 / 11716	−9
7	15,677	2506.6	− 2567	−60.4	× 1988 / 11716	−10.2
8	15,678	2525.8	− 2586	−60.2	× 1992 / 11716	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−43

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,785	2436.4	− 2436	0.4	× 2004 / 11987	0.1
4	15,786	2470.8	− 2485	−14.2	× 1942 / 11987	−2.3
5	15,787	2483.5	− 2528	−44.5	× 2090 / 11987	−7.8
6	15,788	2508.6	− 2552	−43.4	× 1856 / 11987	−6.7
7	15,789	2510.3	− 2567	−56.7	× 2071 / 11987	−9.8
8	15,790	2525.4	− 2586	−60.6	× 2024 / 11987	−10.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,805	2420.2	− 2436	−15.8	× 1899 / 12193	−2.5
4	15,806	2447.8	− 2485	−37.2	× 1948 / 12193	−5.9
5	15,807	2463.3	− 2528	−64.7	× 2068 / 12193	−11
6	15,808	2499.7	− 2552	−52.3	× 2125 / 12193	−9.1
7	15,809	2486.9	− 2567	−80.1	× 1993 / 12193	−13.1
8	15,810	2496.8	− 2586	−89.2	× 2160 / 12193	−15.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,747	2414.6	− 2436	−21.4	× 2033 / 12354	−3.5
4	15,748	2458.8	− 2485	−26.2	× 2015 / 12354	−4.3
5	15,749	2463.7	− 2528	−64.3	× 2022 / 12354	−10.5
6	15,750	2490.5	− 2552	−61.5	× 2170 / 12354	−10.8
7	15,751	2500.1	− 2567	−66.9	× 2164 / 12354	−11.7
8	15,752	2495.3	− 2586	−90.7	× 1950 / 12354	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,700	2418.9	− 2436	−17.1	× 1996 / 12644	−2.7
4	15,701	2451.9	− 2485	−33.1	× 2083 / 12644	−5.5
5	15,702	2464.1	− 2528	−63.9	× 2073 / 12644	−10.5
6	15,703	2489.2	− 2552	−62.8	× 2117 / 12644	−10.5
7	15,704	2486.7	− 2567	−80.3	× 2192 / 12644	−13.9
8	15,705	2495.9	− 2586	−90.1	× 2183 / 12644	−15.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,691	2412.4	− 2436	−23.6	× 1958 / 12437	−3.7
4	15,692	2455.6	− 2485	−29.4	× 2015 / 12437	−4.8
5	15,693	2462.7	− 2528	−65.3	× 2081 / 12437	−10.9
6	15,694	2498.8	− 2552	−53.2	× 2131 / 12437	−9.1
7	15,695	2499.4	− 2567	−67.6	× 2077 / 12437	−11.3
8	15,696	2501.3	− 2586	−84.7	× 2175 / 12437	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	15,696	2417.5	− 2436	−18.5	× 1858 / 12175	−2.8
4	15,697	2455.9	− 2485	−29.1	× 1974 / 12175	−4.7
5	15,698	2467.4	− 2528	−60.6	× 2049 / 12175	−10.2
6	15,699	2496.2	− 2552	−55.8	× 2148 / 12175	−9.8
7	15,700	2500.8	− 2567	−66.2	× 2072 / 12175	−11.3
8	15,701	2508.8	− 2586	−77.2	× 2074 / 12175	−13.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−52

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −55, −48, −44, −43, −37, −57, −55, −59, −55, −52 → −50.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 7 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 6 · 2019→2022: 20 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 4 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 5.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.7 × 2.66 = 15.2. Upper limit −35.3, lower limit −65.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Panama-Buena Vista Union