South Bay Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	14,158	2436.8	− 2436	0.8	× 70 / 336	0.2
4	14,161	2424.7	− 2485	−60.3	× 61 / 336	−10.9
5	14,162	2468.9	− 2528	−59.1	× 64 / 336	−11.3
6	14,165	2521.3	− 2552	−30.7	× 52 / 336	−4.8
7	14,166	2532.1	− 2567	−34.9	× 45 / 336	−4.7
8	14,169	2539.2	− 2586	−46.8	× 44 / 336	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,178	2441.9	− 2436	5.9	× 62 / 335	1.1
4	13,180	2449.4	− 2485	−35.6	× 68 / 335	−7.2
5	13,182	2426.5	− 2528	−101.5	× 64 / 335	−19.4
6	13,185	2515.3	− 2552	−36.7	× 57 / 335	−6.2
7	13,187	2571.4	− 2567	4.4	× 43 / 335	0.6
8	13,188	2559.9	− 2586	−26.1	× 41 / 335	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,509	2412.1	− 2436	−23.9	× 51 / 292	−4.2
4	13,511	2446.9	− 2485	−38.1	× 61 / 292	−8
5	13,513	2433.6	− 2528	−94.4	× 67 / 292	−21.7
6	13,515	2433.6	− 2552	−118.4	× 50 / 292	−20.3
7	13,517	2555.2	− 2567	−11.8	× 29 / 292	−1.2
8	13,519	2593.4	− 2586	7.4	× 34 / 292	0.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,505	2427.6	− 2436	−8.4	× 60 / 285	−1.8
4	13,507	2424.6	− 2485	−60.4	× 46 / 285	−9.7
5	13,509	2447.9	− 2528	−80.1	× 62 / 285	−17.4
6	13,512	2496.2	− 2552	−55.8	× 63 / 285	−12.3
7	13,513	2439.5	− 2567	−127.5	× 26 / 285	−11.6
8	13,516	2534.0	− 2586	−52	× 28 / 285	−5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,625	2443.5	− 2436	7.5	× 60 / 286	1.6
4	13,626	2445.3	− 2485	−39.7	× 60 / 286	−8.3
5	13,627	2430.7	− 2528	−97.3	× 42 / 286	−14.3
6	13,628	2465.4	− 2552	−86.6	× 62 / 286	−18.8
7	13,629	2590.6	− 2567	23.6	× 33 / 286	2.7
8	13,630	2478.8	− 2586	−107.2	× 29 / 286	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,391	2410.0	− 2436	−26	× 50 / 245	−5.3
4	13,392	2391.2	− 2485	−93.8	× 38 / 245	−14.5
5	13,393	2459.1	− 2528	−68.9	× 46 / 245	−12.9
6	13,394	2454.4	− 2552	−97.6	× 57 / 245	−22.7
7	13,395	2485.6	− 2567	−81.4	× 30 / 245	−10
8	13,396	2530.4	− 2586	−55.6	× 24 / 245	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,648	2383.7	− 2436	−52.3	× 54 / 239	−11.8
4	13,649	2438.5	− 2485	−46.5	× 48 / 239	−9.3
5	13,650	2416.7	− 2528	−111.3	× 35 / 239	−16.3
6	13,651	2487.0	− 2552	−65	× 43 / 239	−11.7
7	13,652	2523.9	− 2567	−43.1	× 35 / 239	−6.3
8	13,653	2505.9	− 2586	−80.1	× 24 / 239	−8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,625	2409.8	− 2436	−26.2	× 56 / 246	−6
4	13,626	2451.4	− 2485	−33.6	× 54 / 246	−7.4
5	13,627	2450.3	− 2528	−77.7	× 49 / 246	−15.5
6	13,628	2464.1	− 2552	−87.9	× 31 / 246	−11.1
7	13,629	2550.5	− 2567	−16.5	× 26 / 246	−1.7
8	13,630	2535.7	− 2586	−50.3	× 30 / 246	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,592	2390.1	− 2436	−45.9	× 54 / 259	−9.6
4	13,593	2443.5	− 2485	−41.5	× 51 / 259	−8.2
5	13,594	2440.4	− 2528	−87.6	× 51 / 259	−17.2
6	13,595	2459.5	− 2552	−92.5	× 47 / 259	−16.8
7	13,596	2490.7	− 2567	−76.3	× 29 / 259	−8.5
8	13,597	2555.1	− 2586	−30.9	× 27 / 259	−3.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,556	2431.1	− 2436	−4.9	× 34 / 211	−0.8
4	13,557	2433.4	− 2485	−51.6	× 47 / 211	−11.5
5	13,558	2472.1	− 2528	−55.9	× 47 / 211	−12.5
6	13,559	2455.5	− 2552	−96.5	× 43 / 211	−19.7
7	13,560	2510.4	− 2567	−56.6	× 20 / 211	−5.4
8	13,561	2534.7	− 2586	−51.3	× 20 / 211	−4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−55

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,560	2410.7	− 2436	−25.3	× 41 / 214	−4.8
4	13,561	2445.5	− 2485	−39.5	× 33 / 214	−6.1
5	13,562	2447.7	− 2528	−80.3	× 45 / 214	−16.9
6	13,563	2472.7	− 2552	−79.3	× 38 / 214	−14.1
7	13,564	2516.1	− 2567	−50.9	× 39 / 214	−9.3
8	13,565	2515.6	− 2586	−70.4	× 18 / 214	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −38, −34, −54, −58, −48, −71, −64, −48, −64, −55, −57 → −53.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 20 · 2017→2018: 4 · 2018→2019: 10 · 2019→2021: 23 · 2021→2022: 7 · 2022→2023: 16 · 2023→2024: 16 · 2024→2025: 9 · 2025→2026: 2 → average 11.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.1 × 2.66 = 29.5. Upper limit −24.2, lower limit −83.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

South Bay Union Elementary