Selma Unified: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,024	2380.0	− 2436	−56	× 516 / 3409	−8.5
4	12,026	2414.9	− 2485	−70.1	× 488 / 3409	−10
5	12,028	2446.9	− 2528	−81.1	× 494 / 3409	−11.8
6	12,030	2479.3	− 2552	−72.7	× 489 / 3409	−10.4
7	12,032	2491.5	− 2567	−75.5	× 513 / 3409	−11.4
8	12,034	2504.6	− 2586	−81.4	× 500 / 3409	−11.9
11	12,036	2535.4	− 2628	−92.6	× 409 / 3409	−11.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−75

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,035	2398.5	− 2436	−37.5	× 529 / 3417	−5.8
4	11,036	2426.2	− 2485	−58.8	× 501 / 3417	−8.6
5	11,038	2437.4	− 2528	−90.6	× 483 / 3417	−12.8
6	11,040	2481.7	− 2552	−70.3	× 488 / 3417	−10
7	11,043	2491.2	− 2567	−75.8	× 475 / 3417	−10.5
8	11,044	2502.0	− 2586	−84	× 506 / 3417	−12.4
11	11,046	2542.2	− 2628	−85.8	× 435 / 3417	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,364	2402.5	− 2436	−33.5	× 469 / 3380	−4.6
4	11,366	2431.9	− 2485	−53.1	× 518 / 3380	−8.1
5	11,369	2452.2	− 2528	−75.8	× 508 / 3380	−11.4
6	11,370	2471.4	− 2552	−80.6	× 464 / 3380	−11.1
7	11,372	2487.9	− 2567	−79.1	× 480 / 3380	−11.2
8	11,375	2501.4	− 2586	−84.6	× 478 / 3380	−12
11	11,377	2533.5	− 2628	−94.5	× 463 / 3380	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,398	2404.1	− 2436	−31.9	× 484 / 3419	−4.5
4	11,401	2445.5	− 2485	−39.5	× 476 / 3419	−5.5
5	11,402	2458.9	− 2528	−69.1	× 526 / 3419	−10.6
6	11,405	2484.0	− 2552	−68	× 505 / 3419	−10
7	11,407	2463.0	− 2567	−104	× 470 / 3419	−14.3
8	11,409	2485.3	− 2586	−100.7	× 480 / 3419	−14.1
11	11,410	2522.3	− 2628	−105.7	× 478 / 3419	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,492	2410.4	− 2436	−25.6	× 474 / 3372	−3.6
4	11,493	2441.2	− 2485	−43.8	× 463 / 3372	−6
5	11,494	2468.6	− 2528	−59.4	× 469 / 3372	−8.3
6	11,495	2483.8	− 2552	−68.2	× 526 / 3372	−10.6
7	11,496	2486.5	− 2567	−80.5	× 494 / 3372	−11.8
8	11,497	2470.7	− 2586	−115.3	× 465 / 3372	−15.9
11	11,498	2523.3	− 2628	−104.7	× 481 / 3372	−14.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	11,322	2544.5	− 2628	−83.5	× 263 / 263	−83.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,471	2383.6	− 2436	−52.4	× 438 / 3076	−7.5
4	11,472	2427.2	− 2485	−57.8	× 416 / 3076	−7.8
5	11,473	2447.7	− 2528	−80.3	× 468 / 3076	−12.2
6	11,474	2475.3	− 2552	−76.7	× 458 / 3076	−11.4
7	11,475	2473.2	− 2567	−93.8	× 426 / 3076	−13
8	11,476	2491.3	− 2586	−94.7	× 430 / 3076	−13.2
11	11,477	2488.3	− 2628	−139.7	× 440 / 3076	−20
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−85

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,458	2398.8	− 2436	−37.2	× 446 / 3155	−5.3
4	11,459	2436.8	− 2485	−48.2	× 438 / 3155	−6.7
5	11,460	2448.5	− 2528	−79.5	× 412 / 3155	−10.4
6	11,461	2481.4	− 2552	−70.6	× 463 / 3155	−10.4
7	11,462	2481.2	− 2567	−85.8	× 454 / 3155	−12.3
8	11,463	2489.1	− 2586	−96.9	× 443 / 3155	−13.6
11	11,464	2500.4	− 2628	−127.6	× 499 / 3155	−20.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,413	2390.8	− 2436	−45.2	× 432 / 3162	−6.2
4	11,414	2437.4	− 2485	−47.6	× 446 / 3162	−6.7
5	11,415	2463.1	− 2528	−64.9	× 447 / 3162	−9.2
6	11,416	2472.7	− 2552	−79.3	× 418 / 3162	−10.5
7	11,417	2501.1	− 2567	−65.9	× 466 / 3162	−9.7
8	11,418	2505.9	− 2586	−80.1	× 459 / 3162	−11.6
11	11,419	2518.4	− 2628	−109.6	× 494 / 3162	−17.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,346	2392.6	− 2436	−43.4	× 427 / 3084	−6
4	11,347	2427.0	− 2485	−58	× 427 / 3084	−8
5	11,348	2459.2	− 2528	−68.8	× 450 / 3084	−10
6	11,349	2470.2	− 2552	−81.8	× 460 / 3084	−12.2
7	11,350	2481.7	− 2567	−85.3	× 411 / 3084	−11.4
8	11,351	2516.8	− 2586	−69.2	× 461 / 3084	−10.3
11	11,352	2534.4	− 2628	−93.6	× 448 / 3084	−13.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,382	2398.1	− 2436	−37.9	× 420 / 2981	−5.3
4	11,383	2431.7	− 2485	−53.3	× 416 / 2981	−7.4
5	11,384	2459.9	− 2528	−68.1	× 413 / 2981	−9.4
6	11,385	2480.5	− 2552	−71.5	× 452 / 2981	−10.8
7	11,386	2493.7	− 2567	−73.3	× 450 / 2981	−11.1
8	11,387	2510.0	− 2586	−76	× 388 / 2981	−9.9
11	11,388	2541.5	− 2628	−86.5	× 442 / 2981	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −75, −71, −71, −74, −71, −84, −85, −79, −71, −72, −67 → −74.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 3 · 2018→2019: 3 · 2019→2021: 13 · 2021→2022: 1 · 2022→2023: 6 · 2023→2024: 8 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 5 → average 4.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.4 × 2.66 = 11.7. Upper limit −62.8, lower limit −86.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Selma Unified