California Virtual Academy At Fresno: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 11.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 84 points under the grade 3 bar. 2352 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 28 points under the grade 3 bar. 2408 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 22 points under the grade 3 bar. 2414 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 29 points under the grade 4 bar. 2456 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores 18 points under the grade 4 bar. 2467 vs. 2485. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 17 points under the grade 4 bar. 2468 vs. 2485. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.
11th The average 11th grader scores 14 points under the grade 6 bar. 2538 vs. 2552. The 11th-grade bar is 2628.

2018 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	11,614	2384.5	− 2436	−51.5	× 53 / 364	−7.5
4	11,617	2422.6	− 2485	−62.4	× 53 / 364	−9.1
5	11,618	2471.7	− 2528	−56.3	× 56 / 364	−8.7
6	11,621	2455.8	− 2552	−96.2	× 55 / 364	−14.5
7	11,622	2489.9	− 2567	−77.1	× 68 / 364	−14.4
8	11,625	2508.8	− 2586	−77.2	× 79 / 364	−16.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−71

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,627	2382.4	− 2436	−53.6	× 36 / 309	−6.2
4	10,628	2421.2	− 2485	−63.8	× 50 / 309	−10.3
5	10,630	2437.8	− 2528	−90.2	× 44 / 309	−12.8
6	10,632	2451.7	− 2552	−100.3	× 50 / 309	−16.2
7	10,635	2483.1	− 2567	−83.9	× 62 / 309	−16.8
8	10,636	2490.9	− 2586	−95.1	× 67 / 309	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,952	2369.0	− 2436	−67	× 33 / 246	−9
4	10,954	2403.0	− 2485	−82	× 31 / 246	−10.3
5	10,956	2446.1	− 2528	−81.9	× 44 / 246	−14.6
6	10,959	2443.4	− 2552	−108.6	× 32 / 246	−14.1
7	10,960	2454.7	− 2567	−112.3	× 44 / 246	−20.1
8	10,963	2467.2	− 2586	−118.8	× 62 / 246	−29.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	10,962	2352.1	− 2436	−83.9	× 34 / 276	−10.3
4	10,965	2408.4	− 2485	−76.6	× 26 / 276	−7.2
5	10,966	2414.2	− 2528	−113.8	× 36 / 276	−14.8
6	10,969	2455.6	− 2552	−96.4	× 45 / 276	−15.7
7	10,970	2466.6	− 2567	−100.4	× 49 / 276	−17.8
8	10,973	2467.8	− 2586	−118.2	× 54 / 276	−23.1
11	10,974	2537.6	− 2628	−90.4	× 32 / 276	−10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −71, −83, −98, −100 → −88
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 12 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 2 → average 9.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 9.7 × 2.66 = 25.8. Upper limit −62.2, lower limit −113.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18.