Jefferson Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2469 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2487 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader meets the grade 5 bar. 2541 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 19 points under the grade 6 bar. 2533 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,900	2452.3	− 2436	16.3	× 76 / 292	4.2
4	9,903	2480.9	− 2485	−4.1	× 72 / 292	−1
5	9,904	2475.2	− 2528	−52.8	× 68 / 292	−12.3
6	9,907	2523.6	− 2552	−28.4	× 76 / 292	−7.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,953	2460.1	− 2436	24.1	× 80 / 299	6.4
4	8,954	2489.0	− 2485	4	× 74 / 299	1
5	8,956	2498.0	− 2528	−30	× 71 / 299	−7.1
6	8,958	2490.9	− 2552	−61.1	× 74 / 299	−15.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,261	2461.3	− 2436	25.3	× 87 / 303	7.3
4	9,263	2475.7	− 2485	−9.3	× 76 / 303	−2.3
5	9,264	2494.9	− 2528	−33.1	× 71 / 303	−7.8
6	9,266	2525.2	− 2552	−26.8	× 69 / 303	−6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,282	2484.6	− 2436	48.6	× 90 / 323	13.5
4	9,284	2485.8	− 2485	0.8	× 88 / 323	0.2
5	9,286	2520.6	− 2528	−7.4	× 74 / 323	−1.7
6	9,288	2530.5	− 2552	−21.5	× 71 / 323	−4.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,359	2468.7	− 2436	32.7	× 81 / 325	8.1
4	9,360	2481.4	− 2485	−3.6	× 89 / 325	−1
5	9,361	2509.8	− 2528	−18.2	× 85 / 325	−4.8
6	9,362	2536.5	− 2552	−15.5	× 70 / 325	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,328	2425.2	− 2436	−10.8	× 76 / 355	−2.3
4	9,329	2461.8	− 2485	−23.2	× 91 / 355	−5.9
5	9,330	2466.7	− 2528	−61.3	× 100 / 355	−17.3
6	9,331	2513.4	− 2552	−38.6	× 88 / 355	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,304	2412.2	− 2436	−23.8	× 78 / 338	−5.5
4	9,305	2469.1	− 2485	−15.9	× 81 / 338	−3.8
5	9,306	2486.7	− 2528	−41.3	× 82 / 338	−10
6	9,307	2501.2	− 2552	−50.8	× 97 / 338	−14.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,260	2427.6	− 2436	−8.4	× 67 / 314	−1.8
4	9,261	2470.0	− 2485	−15	× 81 / 314	−3.9
5	9,262	2503.8	− 2528	−24.2	× 80 / 314	−6.2
6	9,263	2512.2	− 2552	−39.8	× 86 / 314	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−23

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,241	2430.7	− 2436	−5.3	× 66 / 318	−1.1
4	9,242	2470.0	− 2485	−15	× 66 / 318	−3.1
5	9,243	2521.3	− 2528	−6.7	× 88 / 318	−1.9
6	9,244	2494.0	− 2552	−58	× 98 / 318	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−24

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	9,259	2468.7	− 2436	32.7	× 68 / 295	7.5
4	9,260	2486.6	− 2485	1.6	× 75 / 295	0.4
5	9,261	2541.0	− 2528	13	× 61 / 295	2.7
6	9,262	2532.8	− 2552	−19.2	× 91 / 295	−5.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −16, −15, −9, 7, −1, −35, −34, −23, −24, 5 → −14.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 16 · 2018→2019: 8 · 2019→2022: 34 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 1 · 2025→2026: 29 → average 11.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 11.9 × 2.66 = 31.7. Upper limit 17.2, lower limit −46.2.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.