Madera Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2495 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader meets the grade 4 bar. 2543 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader meets the grade 5 bar. 2566 vs. 2528.
6th The average 6th grader meets the grade 6 bar. 2617 vs. 2552.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,761	2447.7	− 2436	11.7	× 72 / 293	2.9
4	7,763	2502.3	− 2485	17.3	× 83 / 293	4.9
5	7,765	2563.0	− 2528	35	× 69 / 293	8.2
6	7,767	2578.2	− 2552	26.2	× 69 / 293	6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						22

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	6,944	2481.4	− 2436	45.4	× 71 / 289	11.2
4	6,947	2507.0	− 2485	22	× 77 / 289	5.9
5	6,949	2545.8	− 2528	17.8	× 79 / 289	4.9
6	6,950	2589.3	− 2552	37.3	× 62 / 289	8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						30

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,156	2463.7	− 2436	27.7	× 63 / 285	6.1
4	7,158	2548.5	− 2485	63.5	× 69 / 285	15.4
5	7,161	2541.6	− 2528	13.6	× 73 / 285	3.5
6	7,162	2563.9	− 2552	11.9	× 80 / 285	3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						28

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,175	2493.4	− 2436	57.4	× 72 / 283	14.6
4	7,176	2509.9	− 2485	24.9	× 62 / 283	5.5
5	7,178	2567.2	− 2528	39.2	× 70 / 283	9.7
6	7,180	2579.3	− 2552	27.3	× 79 / 283	7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,221	2485.6	− 2436	49.6	× 67 / 260	12.8
4	7,222	2550.0	− 2485	65	× 67 / 260	16.8
5	7,223	2542.8	− 2528	14.8	× 63 / 260	3.6
6	7,224	2588.1	− 2552	36.1	× 63 / 260	8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						42

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,162	2468.8	− 2436	32.8	× 60 / 235	8.4
4	7,163	2518.1	− 2485	33.1	× 62 / 235	8.7
5	7,164	2553.9	− 2528	25.9	× 58 / 235	6.4
6	7,165	2569.5	− 2552	17.5	× 55 / 235	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						28

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,150	2470.6	− 2436	34.6	× 63 / 233	9.4
4	7,151	2579.4	− 2485	94.4	× 55 / 233	22.3
5	7,152	2522.3	− 2528	−5.7	× 59 / 233	−1.4
6	7,153	2584.8	− 2552	32.8	× 56 / 233	7.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						38

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,097	2468.3	− 2436	32.3	× 65 / 240	8.7
4	7,098	2555.9	− 2485	70.9	× 61 / 240	18
5	7,099	2559.2	− 2528	31.2	× 59 / 240	7.7
6	7,100	2561.2	− 2552	9.2	× 55 / 240	2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						37

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,057	2483.0	− 2436	47	× 67 / 238	13.2
4	7,058	2547.8	− 2485	62.8	× 58 / 238	15.3
5	7,059	2577.1	− 2528	49.1	× 60 / 238	12.4
6	7,060	2621.8	− 2552	69.8	× 53 / 238	15.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						56

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,061	2495.1	− 2436	59.1	× 65 / 264	14.6
4	7,062	2543.1	− 2485	58.1	× 72 / 264	15.8
5	7,063	2565.6	− 2528	37.6	× 68 / 264	9.7
6	7,064	2616.8	− 2552	64.8	× 59 / 264	14.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						55

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 22, 30, 28, 37, 42, 28, 38, 37, 56, 55 → 37.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 9 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 14 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 1 · 2024→2025: 19 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 7.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.7 × 2.66 = 20.5. Upper limit 57.8, lower limit 16.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.