Walnut Creek Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	8,399	2463.9	− 2436	27.9	× 384 / 2409	4.4
4	8,400	2510.8	− 2485	25.8	× 408 / 2409	4.4
5	8,403	2533.2	− 2528	5.2	× 414 / 2409	0.9
6	8,404	2570.4	− 2552	18.4	× 426 / 2409	3.3
7	8,407	2589.3	− 2567	22.3	× 402 / 2409	3.7
8	8,408	2610.2	− 2586	24.2	× 375 / 2409	3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						20

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,519	2475.5	− 2436	39.5	× 385 / 2396	6.3
4	7,520	2526.9	− 2485	41.9	× 374 / 2396	6.5
5	7,523	2549.5	− 2528	21.5	× 409 / 2396	3.7
6	7,525	2576.7	− 2552	24.7	× 408 / 2396	4.2
7	7,526	2610.8	− 2567	43.8	× 411 / 2396	7.5
8	7,528	2618.0	− 2586	32	× 409 / 2396	5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						34

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,751	2474.9	− 2436	38.9	× 384 / 2386	6.3
4	7,752	2521.9	− 2485	36.9	× 400 / 2386	6.2
5	7,754	2545.7	− 2528	17.7	× 381 / 2386	2.8
6	7,756	2575.7	− 2552	23.7	× 411 / 2386	4.1
7	7,759	2601.9	− 2567	34.9	× 412 / 2386	6
8	7,761	2627.7	− 2586	41.7	× 398 / 2386	7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						32

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,769	2490.2	− 2436	54.2	× 356 / 2335	8.3
4	7,770	2523.1	− 2485	38.1	× 388 / 2335	6.3
5	7,773	2558.6	− 2528	30.6	× 399 / 2335	5.2
6	7,774	2584.4	− 2552	32.4	× 377 / 2335	5.2
7	7,777	2600.1	− 2567	33.1	× 404 / 2335	5.7
8	7,778	2628.7	− 2586	42.7	× 411 / 2335	7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						38

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,821	2491.1	− 2436	55.1	× 356 / 2269	8.6
4	7,822	2535.0	− 2485	50	× 357 / 2269	7.9
5	7,823	2558.3	− 2528	30.3	× 381 / 2269	5.1
6	7,824	2575.6	− 2552	23.6	× 400 / 2269	4.2
7	7,825	2605.6	− 2567	38.6	× 375 / 2269	6.4
8	7,826	2625.8	− 2586	39.8	× 400 / 2269	7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						39

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,754	2485.6	− 2436	49.6	× 354 / 2153	8.2
4	7,755	2538.9	− 2485	53.9	× 360 / 2153	9
5	7,756	2545.8	− 2528	17.8	× 338 / 2153	2.8
6	7,757	2560.5	− 2552	8.5	× 370 / 2153	1.5
7	7,758	2587.2	− 2567	20.2	× 372 / 2153	3.5
8	7,759	2593.0	− 2586	7	× 359 / 2153	1.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						26

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,740	2485.2	− 2436	49.2	× 393 / 2231	8.7
4	7,741	2538.9	− 2485	53.9	× 345 / 2231	8.3
5	7,742	2556.9	− 2528	28.9	× 363 / 2231	4.7
6	7,743	2559.9	− 2552	7.9	× 352 / 2231	1.2
7	7,744	2587.6	− 2567	20.6	× 398 / 2231	3.7
8	7,745	2587.5	− 2586	1.5	× 380 / 2231	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						27

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,684	2481.8	− 2436	45.8	× 377 / 2282	7.6
4	7,685	2526.6	− 2485	41.6	× 398 / 2282	7.3
5	7,686	2553.0	− 2528	25	× 356 / 2282	3.9
6	7,687	2574.0	− 2552	22	× 382 / 2282	3.7
7	7,688	2583.2	− 2567	16.2	× 362 / 2282	2.6
8	7,689	2598.2	− 2586	12.2	× 407 / 2282	2.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						27

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,641	2476.8	− 2436	40.8	× 410 / 2283	7.3
4	7,642	2528.3	− 2485	43.3	× 381 / 2283	7.2
5	7,643	2559.9	− 2528	31.9	× 395 / 2283	5.5
6	7,644	2572.0	− 2552	20	× 357 / 2283	3.1
7	7,645	2611.4	− 2567	44.4	× 386 / 2283	7.5
8	7,646	2615.5	− 2586	29.5	× 354 / 2283	4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	7,643	2488.6	− 2436	52.6	× 370 / 2287	8.5
4	7,644	2532.4	− 2485	47.4	× 411 / 2287	8.5
5	7,645	2551.7	− 2528	23.7	× 378 / 2287	3.9
6	7,646	2595.8	− 2552	43.8	× 401 / 2287	7.7
7	7,647	2623.5	− 2567	56.5	× 349 / 2287	8.6
8	7,648	2650.2	− 2586	64.2	× 378 / 2287	10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						48

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 20, 34, 32, 38, 39, 26, 27, 27, 35, 48 → 32.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 14 · 2016→2017: 2 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 1 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 0 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 13 → average 6.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 6.4 × 2.66 = 17. Upper limit 49.6, lower limit 15.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Walnut Creek Elementary