Excelsior Middle: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade 5 bar

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 8.

6th The average 6th grader scores 21 points under the grade 5 bar. 2508 vs. 2528. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.
7th The average 7th grader scores 13 points under the grade 5 bar. 2515 vs. 2528. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 28 points under the grade 5 bar. 2500 vs. 2528. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	6,332	2548.6	− 2552	−3.4	× 188 / 570	−1.1
7	6,335	2537.5	− 2567	−29.5	× 194 / 570	−10
8	6,336	2587.2	− 2586	1.2	× 188 / 570	0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−11

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,718	2554.5	− 2552	2.5	× 188 / 561	0.8
7	5,720	2564.7	− 2567	−2.3	× 192 / 561	−0.8
8	5,722	2583.9	− 2586	−2.1	× 181 / 561	−0.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−1

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,852	2518.3	− 2552	−33.7	× 196 / 583	−11.3
7	5,854	2565.2	− 2567	−1.8	× 193 / 583	−0.6
8	5,857	2610.3	− 2586	24.3	× 194 / 583	8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,848	2518.4	− 2552	−33.6	× 174 / 556	−10.5
7	5,850	2533.3	− 2567	−33.7	× 181 / 556	−11
8	5,852	2583.3	− 2586	−2.7	× 201 / 556	−1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,910	2506.9	− 2552	−45.1	× 190 / 545	−15.7
7	5,911	2529.9	− 2567	−37.1	× 177 / 545	−12
8	5,912	2569.6	− 2586	−16.4	× 178 / 545	−5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,783	2506.7	− 2552	−45.3	× 145 / 434	−15.1
7	5,784	2516.2	− 2567	−50.8	× 138 / 434	−16.2
8	5,785	2514.6	− 2586	−71.4	× 151 / 434	−24.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,777	2513.8	− 2552	−38.2	× 122 / 397	−11.7
7	5,778	2520.0	− 2567	−47	× 140 / 397	−16.6
8	5,779	2538.7	− 2586	−47.3	× 135 / 397	−16.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−44

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,722	2506.2	− 2552	−45.8	× 120 / 390	−14.1
7	5,723	2505.8	− 2567	−61.2	× 121 / 390	−19
8	5,724	2534.2	− 2586	−51.8	× 149 / 390	−19.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,684	2523.9	− 2552	−28.1	× 126 / 347	−10.2
7	5,685	2503.1	− 2567	−63.9	× 110 / 347	−20.3
8	5,686	2516.9	− 2586	−69.1	× 111 / 347	−22.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,694	2507.5	− 2552	−44.5	× 119 / 359	−14.8
7	5,695	2514.9	− 2567	−52.1	× 124 / 359	−18
8	5,696	2499.8	− 2586	−86.2	× 116 / 359	−27.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −11, −1, −4, −22, −33, −56, −44, −53, −53, −61 → −33.8
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 10 · 2016→2017: 3 · 2017→2018: 18 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 23 · 2022→2023: 12 · 2023→2024: 9 · 2024→2025: 0 · 2025→2026: 8 → average 10.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 10.4 × 2.66 = 27.7. Upper limit −6.1, lower limit −61.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.