Prospects High (Alternative): math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 11.

7th The average 7th grader scores 33 points under the grade 4 bar. 2452 vs. 2485. The 7th-grade bar is 2567.
8th The average 8th grader scores 43 points under the grade 4 bar. 2443 vs. 2485. The 8th-grade bar is 2586.
11th The average 11th grader scores just under the grade 3 bar. 2431 vs. 2436. The 11th-grade bar is 2628.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	5,981	2513.8	− 2552	−38.2	× 10 / 83	−4.6
7	5,982	2452.8	− 2567	−114.2	× 13 / 83	−17.9
8	5,985	2501.7	− 2586	−84.3	× 12 / 83	−12.2
11	5,986	2491.1	− 2628	−136.9	× 48 / 83	−79.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−114

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	5,423	2500.0	− 2567	−67	× 10 / 33	−20.3
8	5,424	2509.3	− 2586	−76.7	× 6 / 33	−13.9
11	5,426	2504.0	− 2628	−124	× 17 / 33	−63.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−98

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	5,540	2455.9	− 2567	−111.1	× 14 / 71	−21.9
8	5,543	2492.6	− 2586	−93.4	× 11 / 71	−14.5
11	5,545	2493.6	− 2628	−134.4	× 46 / 71	−87.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−123

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	5,540	2452.7	− 2628	−175.3	× 35 / 35	−175.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−175

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	5,598	2447.1	− 2567	−119.9	× 14 / 81	−20.7
8	5,599	2458.1	− 2586	−127.9	× 13 / 81	−20.5
11	5,600	2458.7	− 2628	−169.3	× 54 / 81	−112.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−154

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	5,396	2485.0	− 2628	−143	× 21 / 21	−143
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−143

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	5,459	2463.7	− 2628	−164.3	× 45 / 45	−164.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−164

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	5,455	2445.2	− 2628	−182.8	× 60 / 60	−182.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−183

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
11	5,398	2455.6	− 2628	−172.4	× 49 / 49	−172.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−172

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	5,358	2421.8	− 2567	−145.2	× 11 / 96	−16.6
8	5,359	2370.4	− 2586	−215.6	× 14 / 96	−31.4
11	5,360	2444.2	− 2628	−183.8	× 71 / 96	−135.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−184

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	5,362	2452.3	− 2567	−114.7	× 13 / 78	−19.1
8	5,363	2442.5	− 2586	−143.5	× 17 / 78	−31.3
11	5,364	2430.7	− 2628	−197.3	× 48 / 78	−121.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−172

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −114, −98, −123, −175, −154, −143, −164, −183, −172, −184, −172 → −152.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 25 · 2017→2018: 52 · 2018→2019: 21 · 2019→2021: 11 · 2021→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 19 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 12 · 2025→2026: 12 → average 20
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 20 × 2.66 = 53.2. Upper limit −99.7, lower limit −206.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.