Carmen Dragon Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 6.

All students

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 75 points under the grade 3 bar. 2361 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 47 points under the grade 3 bar. 2389 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 26 points under the grade 3 bar. 2410 vs. 2436. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.
6th The average 6th grader scores 24 points under the grade 4 bar. 2461 vs. 2485. The 6th-grade bar is 2552.

Students fluent in English

Math with English out of the way. Includes students who have only ever spoken English.

Grade bars 4th 71 students 44 points under the grade 3 bar.

English learners

Students leave this group as they become fluent, so its average stays low even where they learn well.

Grade bars 4th 15 students 62 points under the grade 3 bar.

the group's average that grade's own bar the distance between

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade. The state leaves out any group of ten students or fewer, so a grade may be missing from the charts.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,912	2373.1	− 2436	−62.9	× 75 / 213	−22.1
4	5,915	2415.6	− 2485	−69.4	× 76 / 213	−24.8
5	5,916	2439.9	− 2528	−88.1	× 62 / 213	−25.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−73

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,366	2365.9	− 2436	−70.1	× 67 / 224	−21
4	5,369	2410.4	− 2485	−74.6	× 75 / 224	−25
5	5,370	2432.3	− 2528	−95.7	× 82 / 224	−35
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,483	2370.8	− 2436	−65.2	× 59 / 271	−14.2
4	5,485	2407.3	− 2485	−77.7	× 76 / 271	−21.8
5	5,487	2455.9	− 2528	−72.1	× 74 / 271	−19.7
6	5,489	2495.5	− 2552	−56.5	× 62 / 271	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−69

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,478	2386.5	− 2436	−49.5	× 62 / 276	−11.1
4	5,481	2439.4	− 2485	−45.6	× 60 / 276	−9.9
5	5,482	2430.2	− 2528	−97.8	× 81 / 276	−28.7
6	5,485	2474.2	− 2552	−77.8	× 73 / 276	−20.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−70

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,535	2367.0	− 2436	−69	× 64 / 266	−16.6
4	5,536	2418.1	− 2485	−66.9	× 65 / 266	−16.3
5	5,537	2453.0	− 2528	−75	× 58 / 266	−16.4
6	5,538	2444.6	− 2552	−107.4	× 79 / 266	−31.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−81

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,378	2398.9	− 2436	−37.1	× 39 / 238	−6.1
4	5,379	2411.3	− 2485	−73.7	× 58 / 238	−18
5	5,380	2433.6	− 2528	−94.4	× 75 / 238	−29.7
6	5,381	2437.4	− 2552	−114.6	× 66 / 238	−31.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,374	2377.2	− 2436	−58.8	× 61 / 251	−14.3
4	5,375	2425.7	− 2485	−59.3	× 53 / 251	−12.5
5	5,376	2400.4	− 2528	−127.6	× 69 / 251	−35.1
6	5,377	2464.7	− 2552	−87.3	× 68 / 251	−23.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−86

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,317	2370.2	− 2436	−65.8	× 51 / 227	−14.8
4	5,318	2419.8	− 2485	−65.2	× 56 / 227	−16.1
5	5,319	2425.9	− 2528	−102.1	× 61 / 227	−27.4
6	5,320	2454.6	− 2552	−97.4	× 59 / 227	−25.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,279	2362.5	− 2436	−73.5	× 79 / 262	−22.2
4	5,280	2387.9	− 2485	−97.1	× 59 / 262	−21.9
5	5,281	2421.5	− 2528	−106.5	× 64 / 262	−26
6	5,282	2441.6	− 2552	−110.4	× 60 / 262	−25.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,283	2361.4	− 2436	−74.6	× 74 / 279	−19.8
4	5,284	2389.0	− 2485	−96	× 86 / 279	−29.6
5	5,285	2410.4	− 2528	−117.6	× 60 / 279	−25.3
6	5,286	2460.8	− 2552	−91.2	× 59 / 279	−19.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−94

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −73, −81, −69, −70, −81, −86, −86, −84, −95, −94 → −81.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 12 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 11 · 2019→2022: 5 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 11 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 5.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 5.7 × 2.66 = 15.2. Upper limit −66.7, lower limit −97.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.