Valley Springs Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 42 points under the grade 3 bar. 2394 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores 22 points under the grade 3 bar. 2414 vs. 2436. The 4th-grade bar is 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 39 points under the grade 4 bar. 2446 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,409	2424.8	− 2436	−11.2	× 69 / 282	−2.7
4	5,412	2456.4	− 2485	−28.6	× 58 / 282	−5.9
5	5,413	2471.7	− 2528	−56.3	× 76 / 282	−15.2
6	5,416	2488.1	− 2552	−63.9	× 79 / 282	−17.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−42

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,889	2404.0	− 2436	−32	× 62 / 275	−7.2
4	4,891	2445.6	− 2485	−39.4	× 72 / 275	−10.3
5	4,892	2472.4	− 2528	−55.6	× 64 / 275	−12.9
6	4,894	2489.1	− 2552	−62.9	× 77 / 275	−17.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−48

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,983	2412.6	− 2436	−23.4	× 70 / 272	−6
4	4,984	2428.2	− 2485	−56.8	× 65 / 272	−13.6
5	4,987	2455.8	− 2528	−72.2	× 72 / 272	−19.1
6	4,988	2487.9	− 2552	−64.1	× 65 / 272	−15.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,970	2406.9	− 2436	−29.1	× 70 / 268	−7.6
4	4,973	2446.7	− 2485	−38.3	× 68 / 268	−9.7
5	4,974	2435.9	− 2528	−92.1	× 56 / 268	−19.2
6	4,977	2487.9	− 2552	−64.1	× 74 / 268	−17.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−54

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,001	2418.2	− 2436	−17.8	× 41 / 237	−3.1
4	5,002	2454.7	− 2485	−30.3	× 76 / 237	−9.7
5	5,003	2463.5	− 2528	−64.5	× 60 / 237	−16.3
6	5,004	2482.7	− 2552	−69.3	× 60 / 237	−17.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,764	2373.5	− 2436	−62.5	× 65 / 159	−25.6
4	4,765	2432.0	− 2485	−53	× 48 / 159	−16
5	4,766	2441.0	− 2528	−87	× 46 / 159	−25.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,843	2385.0	− 2436	−51	× 57 / 188	−15.5
4	4,844	2430.6	− 2485	−54.4	× 71 / 188	−20.5
5	4,845	2462.0	− 2528	−66	× 60 / 188	−21.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,827	2391.6	− 2436	−44.4	× 59 / 186	−14.1
4	4,828	2450.6	− 2485	−34.4	× 57 / 186	−10.5
5	4,829	2444.7	− 2528	−83.3	× 70 / 186	−31.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,782	2381.7	− 2436	−54.3	× 56 / 177	−17.2
4	4,783	2443.8	− 2485	−41.2	× 58 / 177	−13.5
5	4,784	2447.1	− 2528	−80.9	× 63 / 177	−28.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,744	2370.9	− 2436	−65.1	× 58 / 166	−22.7
4	4,745	2425.5	− 2485	−59.5	× 49 / 166	−17.6
5	4,746	2439.8	− 2528	−88.2	× 59 / 166	−31.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,740	2393.6	− 2436	−42.4	× 59 / 165	−15.2
4	4,741	2413.8	− 2485	−71.2	× 59 / 165	−25.5
5	4,742	2445.6	− 2528	−82.4	× 47 / 165	−23.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −42, −48, −54, −54, −47, −67, −57, −56, −59, −72, −64 → −56.4
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 6 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 7 · 2019→2021: 20 · 2021→2022: 10 · 2022→2023: 1 · 2023→2024: 3 · 2024→2025: 13 · 2025→2026: 8 → average 7.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 7.4 × 2.66 = 19.7. Upper limit −36.7, lower limit −76.1.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.