Thermalito Union Elementary: math

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	5,111	2398.4	− 2436	−37.6	× 160 / 855	−7
4	5,112	2413.8	− 2485	−71.2	× 144 / 855	−12
5	5,115	2429.8	− 2528	−98.2	× 137 / 855	−15.7
6	5,116	2427.5	− 2552	−124.5	× 138 / 855	−20.1
7	5,119	2472.8	− 2567	−94.2	× 139 / 855	−15.3
8	5,120	2505.2	− 2586	−80.8	× 137 / 855	−12.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−83

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,591	2397.3	− 2436	−38.7	× 162 / 896	−7
4	4,593	2449.3	− 2485	−35.7	× 171 / 896	−6.8
5	4,595	2447.8	− 2528	−80.2	× 143 / 896	−12.8
6	4,596	2427.0	− 2552	−125	× 142 / 896	−19.8
7	4,599	2468.4	− 2567	−98.6	× 135 / 896	−14.9
8	4,601	2506.1	− 2586	−79.9	× 143 / 896	−12.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−74

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,683	2399.1	− 2436	−36.9	× 147 / 900	−6
4	4,684	2433.6	− 2485	−51.4	× 161 / 900	−9.2
5	4,686	2465.9	− 2528	−62.1	× 171 / 900	−11.8
6	4,689	2466.2	− 2552	−85.8	× 136 / 900	−13
7	4,690	2485.1	− 2567	−81.9	× 151 / 900	−13.7
8	4,693	2494.2	− 2586	−91.8	× 134 / 900	−13.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−67

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,671	2399.8	− 2436	−36.2	× 162 / 941	−6.2
4	4,672	2443.5	− 2485	−41.5	× 154 / 941	−6.8
5	4,675	2461.3	− 2528	−66.7	× 171 / 941	−12.1
6	4,676	2464.0	− 2552	−88	× 159 / 941	−14.9
7	4,679	2479.4	− 2567	−87.6	× 150 / 941	−14
8	4,680	2493.1	− 2586	−92.9	× 145 / 941	−14.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,699	2389.7	− 2436	−46.3	× 181 / 981	−8.5
4	4,700	2434.9	− 2485	−50.1	× 169 / 981	−8.6
5	4,701	2450.8	− 2528	−77.2	× 159 / 981	−12.5
6	4,702	2451.7	− 2552	−100.3	× 181 / 981	−18.5
7	4,703	2484.4	− 2567	−82.6	× 150 / 981	−12.6
8	4,704	2505.2	− 2586	−80.8	× 141 / 981	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,501	2371.9	− 2436	−64.1	× 165 / 900	−11.8
4	4,502	2408.8	− 2485	−76.2	× 148 / 900	−12.5
5	4,503	2434.5	− 2528	−93.5	× 161 / 900	−16.7
6	4,504	2441.6	− 2552	−110.4	× 137 / 900	−16.8
7	4,505	2463.9	− 2567	−103.1	× 137 / 900	−15.7
8	4,506	2456.4	− 2586	−129.6	× 152 / 900	−21.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−95

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,578	2383.6	− 2436	−52.4	× 176 / 937	−9.8
4	4,579	2432.9	− 2485	−52.1	× 166 / 937	−9.2
5	4,580	2440.3	− 2528	−87.7	× 148 / 937	−13.9
6	4,581	2451.5	− 2552	−100.5	× 170 / 937	−18.2
7	4,582	2456.3	− 2567	−110.7	× 133 / 937	−15.7
8	4,583	2504.6	− 2586	−81.4	× 144 / 937	−12.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,566	2381.5	− 2436	−54.5	× 188 / 971	−10.6
4	4,567	2431.3	− 2485	−53.7	× 170 / 971	−9.4
5	4,568	2455.0	− 2528	−73	× 166 / 971	−12.5
6	4,569	2451.9	− 2552	−100.1	× 143 / 971	−14.7
7	4,570	2460.9	− 2567	−106.1	× 161 / 971	−17.6
8	4,571	2492.3	− 2586	−93.7	× 143 / 971	−13.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−79

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,525	2386.5	− 2436	−49.5	× 174 / 964	−8.9
4	4,526	2432.8	− 2485	−52.2	× 176 / 964	−9.5
5	4,527	2453.8	− 2528	−74.2	× 165 / 964	−12.7
6	4,528	2460.8	− 2552	−91.2	× 155 / 964	−14.7
7	4,529	2497.5	− 2567	−69.5	× 143 / 964	−10.3
8	4,530	2513.0	− 2586	−73	× 151 / 964	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,479	2390.9	− 2436	−45.1	× 164 / 966	−7.7
4	4,480	2438.7	− 2485	−46.3	× 174 / 966	−8.3
5	4,481	2463.1	− 2528	−64.9	× 165 / 966	−11.1
6	4,482	2473.4	− 2552	−78.6	× 167 / 966	−13.6
7	4,483	2504.2	− 2567	−62.8	× 160 / 966	−10.4
8	4,484	2524.1	− 2586	−61.9	× 136 / 966	−8.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−60

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,465	2394.5	− 2436	−41.5	× 165 / 987	−6.9
4	4,466	2437.7	− 2485	−47.3	× 159 / 987	−7.6
5	4,467	2462.6	− 2528	−65.4	× 176 / 987	−11.7
6	4,468	2464.9	− 2552	−87.1	× 164 / 987	−14.5
7	4,469	2497.8	− 2567	−69.2	× 160 / 987	−11.2
8	4,470	2532.7	− 2586	−53.3	× 163 / 987	−8.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−61

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −83, −74, −67, −68, −72, −95, −79, −79, −68, −60, −61 → −73.3
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 9 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 4 · 2019→2021: 23 · 2021→2022: 16 · 2022→2023: 0 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 1 → average 8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8 × 2.66 = 21.3. Upper limit −52, lower limit −94.6.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Schools in Thermalito Union Elementary

Elementary schools

Middle schools

Nelson Avenue Middle