Neal Dow Elementary: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader meets the grade 3 bar. 2457 vs. 2436.
4th The average 4th grader scores just under the grade 4 bar. 2483 vs. 2485.
5th The average 5th grader scores 19 points under the grade 5 bar. 2509 vs. 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,537	2434.6	− 2436	−1.4	× 54 / 228	−0.3
4	4,538	2454.4	− 2485	−30.6	× 60 / 228	−8.1
5	4,541	2471.8	− 2528	−56.2	× 60 / 228	−14.8
6	4,542	2510.9	− 2552	−41.1	× 54 / 228	−9.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−33

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,042	2419.2	− 2436	−16.8	× 54 / 226	−4
4	4,045	2466.2	− 2485	−18.8	× 58 / 226	−4.8
5	4,046	2484.5	− 2528	−43.5	× 60 / 226	−11.5
6	4,049	2483.4	− 2552	−68.6	× 54 / 226	−16.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,127	2421.3	− 2436	−14.7	× 56 / 172	−4.8
4	4,129	2463.3	− 2485	−21.7	× 56 / 172	−7.1
5	4,130	2485.6	− 2528	−42.4	× 60 / 172	−14.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,128	2433.9	− 2436	−2.1	× 56 / 159	−0.7
4	4,131	2447.2	− 2485	−37.8	× 50 / 159	−11.9
5	4,132	2514.2	− 2528	−13.8	× 53 / 159	−4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−17

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,182	2420.8	− 2436	−15.2	× 67 / 187	−5.4
4	4,183	2439.7	− 2485	−45.3	× 61 / 187	−14.8
5	4,184	2466.1	− 2528	−61.9	× 59 / 187	−19.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−40

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,100	2430.7	− 2436	−5.3	× 42 / 128	−1.7
4	4,101	2489.8	− 2485	4.8	× 47 / 128	1.8
5	4,102	2482.5	− 2528	−45.5	× 39 / 128	−13.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−14

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,081	2461.6	− 2436	25.6	× 69 / 162	10.9
4	4,082	2492.4	− 2485	7.4	× 40 / 162	1.8
5	4,083	2494.8	− 2528	−33.2	× 53 / 162	−10.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,046	2423.3	− 2436	−12.7	× 44 / 158	−3.5
4	4,047	2468.0	− 2485	−17	× 72 / 158	−7.7
5	4,048	2486.5	− 2528	−41.5	× 42 / 158	−11
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,000	2423.3	− 2436	−12.7	× 55 / 168	−4.2
4	4,001	2497.4	− 2485	12.4	× 41 / 168	3
5	4,002	2501.4	− 2528	−26.6	× 72 / 168	−11.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−13

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,978	2457.3	− 2436	21.3	× 43 / 137	6.7
4	3,979	2483.0	− 2485	−2	× 49 / 137	−0.7
5	3,980	2509.1	− 2528	−18.9	× 45 / 137	−6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −33, −37, −27, −17, −40, −14, 2, −22, −13, 0 → −20.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 10 · 2018→2019: 23 · 2019→2022: 26 · 2022→2023: 16 · 2023→2024: 24 · 2024→2025: 9 · 2025→2026: 13 → average 15
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 15 × 2.66 = 39.9. Upper limit 19.8, lower limit −60.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.