Forest Ranch Charter: math

The shaded band is this school's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Measured against the grade bars

The state's math test uses one scale for every grade, so a score means the same thing in grade 3 as in grade 5.

3rd The average 3rd grader scores 28 points under the grade 3 bar. 2408 vs. 2436.
5th The average 5th grader scores 17 points under the grade 4 bar. 2469 vs. 2485. The 5th-grade bar is 2528.

2026 results. "Meets standard" is the state's mark for being on track for that grade.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,404	2431.6	− 2436	−4.4	× 20 / 72	−1.2
4	4,406	2466.8	− 2485	−18.2	× 18 / 72	−4.6
5	4,409	2473.1	− 2528	−54.9	× 23 / 72	−17.5
6	4,410	2483.1	− 2552	−68.9	× 11 / 72	−10.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−34

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,912	2429.1	− 2436	−6.9	× 17 / 73	−1.6
4	3,914	2459.9	− 2485	−25.1	× 19 / 73	−6.5
5	3,916	2481.8	− 2528	−46.2	× 15 / 73	−9.5
6	3,919	2504.9	− 2552	−47.1	× 22 / 73	−14.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−32

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,997	2437.7	− 2436	1.7	× 15 / 76	0.3
4	3,999	2457.2	− 2485	−27.8	× 15 / 76	−5.5
5	4,000	2500.3	− 2528	−27.7	× 18 / 76	−6.6
6	4,002	2527.2	− 2552	−24.8	× 13 / 76	−4.2
7	4,005	2513.5	− 2567	−53.5	× 15 / 76	−10.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,002	2418.0	− 2436	−18	× 20 / 69	−5.2
4	4,005	2460.2	− 2485	−24.8	× 17 / 69	−6.1
5	4,006	2493.3	− 2528	−34.7	× 19 / 69	−9.6
6	4,009	2517.9	− 2552	−34.1	× 13 / 69	−6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	4,045	2477.8	− 2436	41.8	× 11 / 74	6.2
4	4,046	2499.4	− 2485	14.4	× 19 / 74	3.7
5	4,047	2496.5	− 2528	−31.5	× 15 / 74	−6.4
6	4,048	2512.1	− 2552	−39.9	× 16 / 74	−8.6
7	4,049	2530.0	− 2567	−37	× 13 / 74	−6.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,895	2446.5	− 2436	10.5	× 15 / 41	3.8
4	3,896	2479.8	− 2485	−5.2	× 13 / 41	−1.6
5	3,897	2513.5	− 2528	−14.5	× 13 / 41	−4.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−2

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,941	2389.5	− 2436	−46.5	× 13 / 37	−16.3
4	3,942	2465.6	− 2485	−19.4	× 12 / 37	−6.3
5	3,943	2455.0	− 2528	−73	× 12 / 37	−23.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−46

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	3,925	2460.7	− 2485	−24.3	× 15 / 26	−14
5	3,926	2477.5	− 2528	−50.5	× 11 / 26	−21.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−35

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,889	2407.6	− 2436	−28.4	× 14 / 40	−9.9
5	3,891	2478.8	− 2528	−49.2	× 15 / 40	−18.5
6	3,892	2484.6	− 2552	−67.4	× 11 / 40	−18.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	3,848	2490.4	− 2485	5.4	× 12 / 12	5.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	3,831	2408.4	− 2436	−27.6	× 20 / 34	−16.2
5	3,833	2468.5	− 2528	−59.5	× 14 / 34	−24.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−41

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −34, −32, −27, −27, −12, −2, −46, −35, −47, 5, −41 → −27.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 0 · 2018→2019: 15 · 2019→2021: 10 · 2021→2022: 44 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 12 · 2024→2025: 52 · 2025→2026: 46 → average 19.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 19.7 × 2.66 = 52.4. Upper limit 25.3, lower limit −79.5.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.