Mesa Union Elementary: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	103,179	2417.9	− 2432	−14.1	× 74 / 416	−2.5
4	103,182	2484.1	− 2473	11.1	× 70 / 416	1.9
5	103,183	2509.2	− 2502	7.2	× 68 / 416	1.2
6	103,186	2539.7	− 2531	8.7	× 69 / 416	1.4
7	103,187	2561.6	− 2552	9.6	× 66 / 416	1.5
8	103,190	2584.9	− 2567	17.9	× 69 / 416	3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	95,869	2433.6	− 2432	1.6	× 67 / 408	0.3
4	95,872	2492.8	− 2473	19.8	× 76 / 408	3.7
5	95,874	2527.7	− 2502	25.7	× 70 / 408	4.4
6	95,876	2536.4	− 2531	5.4	× 65 / 408	0.9
7	95,878	2569.7	− 2552	17.7	× 65 / 408	2.8
8	95,880	2609.9	− 2567	42.9	× 65 / 408	6.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,649	2420.5	− 2432	−11.5	× 74 / 411	−2.1
4	98,650	2470.4	− 2473	−2.6	× 72 / 411	−0.5
5	98,652	2522.6	− 2502	20.6	× 73 / 411	3.7
6	98,654	2549.2	− 2531	18.2	× 70 / 411	3.1
7	98,657	2577.8	− 2552	25.8	× 60 / 411	3.8
8	98,659	2600.9	− 2567	33.9	× 62 / 411	5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						13

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,822	2428.2	− 2432	−3.8	× 63 / 409	−0.6
4	98,823	2472.9	− 2473	−0.1	× 74 / 409	0
5	98,826	2523.0	− 2502	21	× 72 / 409	3.7
6	98,827	2549.9	− 2531	18.9	× 71 / 409	3.3
7	98,830	2573.8	− 2552	21.8	× 67 / 409	3.6
8	98,831	2594.4	− 2567	27.4	× 62 / 409	4.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,500	2431.9	− 2432	−0.1	× 53 / 389	0
4	99,501	2466.4	− 2473	−6.6	× 64 / 389	−1.1
5	99,502	2514.6	− 2502	12.6	× 74 / 389	2.4
6	99,503	2563.9	− 2531	32.9	× 68 / 389	5.8
7	99,504	2583.6	− 2552	31.6	× 65 / 389	5.3
8	99,505	2604.4	− 2567	37.4	× 65 / 389	6.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,691	2396.0	− 2432	−36	× 65 / 359	−6.5
4	99,692	2461.4	− 2473	−11.6	× 68 / 359	−2.2
5	99,693	2507.3	− 2502	5.3	× 63 / 359	0.9
6	99,694	2554.1	− 2531	23.1	× 48 / 359	3.1
7	99,695	2566.4	− 2552	14.4	× 52 / 359	2.1
8	99,696	2582.6	− 2567	15.6	× 63 / 359	2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,525	2394.2	− 2432	−37.8	× 69 / 373	−7
4	99,526	2437.2	− 2473	−35.8	× 69 / 373	−6.6
5	99,527	2503.1	− 2502	1.1	× 67 / 373	0.2
6	99,528	2542.3	− 2531	11.3	× 66 / 373	2
7	99,529	2577.8	− 2552	25.8	× 55 / 373	3.8
8	99,530	2585.2	− 2567	18.2	× 47 / 373	2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−5

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,432	2418.4	− 2432	−13.6	× 63 / 390	−2.2
4	99,433	2429.7	− 2473	−43.3	× 72 / 390	−8
5	99,434	2488.8	− 2502	−13.2	× 67 / 390	−2.3
6	99,435	2541.2	− 2531	10.2	× 68 / 390	1.8
7	99,436	2589.9	− 2552	37.9	× 65 / 390	6.3
8	99,437	2612.3	− 2567	45.3	× 55 / 390	6.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						2

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	99,130	2439.8	− 2432	7.8	× 64 / 410	1.2
4	99,131	2464.2	− 2473	−8.8	× 69 / 410	−1.5
5	99,132	2468.0	− 2502	−34	× 70 / 410	−5.8
6	99,133	2542.8	− 2531	11.8	× 79 / 410	2.3
7	99,134	2590.6	− 2552	38.6	× 66 / 410	6.2
8	99,135	2617.3	− 2567	50.3	× 62 / 410	7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						10

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	98,789	2434.8	− 2432	2.8	× 50 / 416	0.3
4	98,790	2468.7	− 2473	−4.3	× 70 / 416	−0.7
5	98,791	2503.8	− 2502	1.8	× 72 / 416	0.3
6	98,792	2524.0	− 2531	−7	× 74 / 416	−1.2
7	98,793	2600.7	− 2552	48.7	× 84 / 416	9.8
8	98,794	2634.2	− 2567	67.2	× 66 / 416	10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						19

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. 6, 19, 13, 14, 19, 0, −5, 2, 10, 19 → 9.7
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 13 · 2016→2017: 6 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 5 · 2019→2022: 19 · 2022→2023: 5 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 9 → average 8.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.1 × 2.66 = 21.5. Upper limit 31.2, lower limit −11.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Mesa Union Elementary