Modesto City Elementary: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	96,945	2370.3	− 2432	−61.7	× 1774 / 9775	−11.2
4	96,946	2410.4	− 2473	−62.6	× 1720 / 9775	−11
5	96,949	2448.9	− 2502	−53.1	× 1665 / 9775	−9
6	96,950	2477.8	− 2531	−53.2	× 1629 / 9775	−8.9
7	96,953	2487.0	− 2552	−65	× 1482 / 9775	−9.9
8	96,954	2514.4	− 2567	−52.6	× 1505 / 9775	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−58

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	89,901	2368.4	− 2432	−63.6	× 1784 / 10004	−11.3
4	89,902	2405.3	− 2473	−67.7	× 1779 / 10004	−12
5	89,904	2451.1	− 2502	−50.9	× 1751 / 10004	−8.9
6	89,906	2483.5	− 2531	−47.5	× 1662 / 10004	−7.9
7	89,908	2500.6	− 2552	−51.4	× 1523 / 10004	−7.8
8	89,910	2516.8	− 2567	−50.2	× 1505 / 10004	−7.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,524	2375.1	− 2432	−56.9	× 1678 / 10027	−9.5
4	92,526	2410.5	− 2473	−62.5	× 1758 / 10027	−11
5	92,529	2443.1	− 2502	−58.9	× 1761 / 10027	−10.3
6	92,531	2486.0	− 2531	−45	× 1742 / 10027	−7.8
7	92,532	2495.7	− 2552	−56.3	× 1571 / 10027	−8.8
8	92,535	2511.3	− 2567	−55.7	× 1517 / 10027	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−56

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,723	2382.9	− 2432	−49.1	× 1566 / 9899	−7.8
4	92,726	2420.1	− 2473	−52.9	× 1684 / 9899	−9
5	92,727	2454.5	− 2502	−47.5	× 1743 / 9899	−8.4
6	92,730	2484.6	− 2531	−46.4	× 1746 / 9899	−8.2
7	92,731	2502.8	− 2552	−49.2	× 1626 / 9899	−8.1
8	92,734	2511.5	− 2567	−55.5	× 1534 / 9899	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,354	2382.8	− 2432	−49.2	× 1619 / 9791	−8.1
4	93,355	2419.5	− 2473	−53.5	× 1557 / 9791	−8.5
5	93,356	2456.1	− 2502	−45.9	× 1661 / 9791	−7.8
6	93,357	2487.5	− 2531	−43.5	× 1726 / 9791	−7.7
7	93,358	2500.2	− 2552	−51.8	× 1627 / 9791	−8.6
8	93,359	2508.4	− 2567	−58.6	× 1601 / 9791	−9.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	91,369	2350.7	− 2432	−81.3	× 1301 / 7673	−13.8
4	91,370	2408.2	− 2473	−64.8	× 1412 / 7673	−11.9
5	91,371	2439.8	− 2502	−62.2	× 1454 / 7673	−11.8
6	91,372	2470.7	− 2531	−60.3	× 1355 / 7673	−10.6
7	91,373	2494.6	− 2552	−57.4	× 1022 / 7673	−7.6
8	91,374	2512.0	− 2567	−55	× 1129 / 7673	−8.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−64

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,585	2360.8	− 2432	−71.2	× 1503 / 8897	−12
4	93,586	2404.4	− 2473	−68.6	× 1435 / 8897	−11.1
5	93,587	2442.2	− 2502	−59.8	× 1541 / 8897	−10.4
6	93,588	2476.1	− 2531	−54.9	× 1572 / 8897	−9.7
7	93,589	2487.4	− 2552	−64.6	× 1360 / 8897	−9.9
8	93,590	2487.3	− 2567	−79.7	× 1486 / 8897	−13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−66

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,489	2359.0	− 2432	−73	× 1483 / 8791	−12.3
4	93,490	2397.7	− 2473	−75.3	× 1519 / 8791	−13
5	93,491	2438.8	− 2502	−63.2	× 1443 / 8791	−10.4
6	93,492	2481.0	− 2531	−50	× 1503 / 8791	−8.5
7	93,493	2481.2	− 2552	−70.8	× 1481 / 8791	−11.9
8	93,494	2489.5	− 2567	−77.5	× 1362 / 8791	−12
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−68

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,372	2371.7	− 2432	−60.3	× 1516 / 8844	−10.3
4	93,373	2413.8	− 2473	−59.2	× 1474 / 8844	−9.9
5	93,374	2445.8	− 2502	−56.2	× 1523 / 8844	−9.7
6	93,375	2488.2	− 2531	−42.8	× 1418 / 8844	−6.9
7	93,376	2498.0	− 2552	−54	× 1429 / 8844	−8.7
8	93,377	2497.8	− 2567	−69.2	× 1484 / 8844	−11.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−57

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	93,102	2376.6	− 2432	−55.4	× 1567 / 8979	−9.7
4	93,103	2419.4	− 2473	−53.6	× 1574 / 8979	−9.4
5	93,104	2456.4	− 2502	−45.6	× 1498 / 8979	−7.6
6	93,105	2490.8	− 2531	−40.2	× 1527 / 8979	−6.8
7	93,106	2501.9	− 2552	−50.1	× 1358 / 8979	−7.6
8	93,107	2514.1	− 2567	−52.9	× 1455 / 8979	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−50

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	92,704	2380.5	− 2432	−51.5	× 1437 / 8785	−8.4
4	92,705	2422.9	− 2473	−50.1	× 1537 / 8785	−8.8
5	92,706	2458.9	− 2502	−43.1	× 1532 / 8785	−7.5
6	92,707	2497.4	− 2531	−33.6	× 1464 / 8785	−5.6
7	92,708	2500.4	− 2552	−51.6	× 1443 / 8785	−8.5
8	92,709	2512.7	− 2567	−54.3	× 1372 / 8785	−8.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−47

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −58, −56, −56, −50, −50, −64, −66, −68, −57, −50, −47 → −56.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 2 · 2016→2017: 0 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2021: 14 · 2021→2022: 2 · 2022→2023: 2 · 2023→2024: 11 · 2024→2025: 7 · 2025→2026: 3 → average 4.7
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.7 × 2.66 = 12.5. Upper limit −44, lower limit −69.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Modesto City Elementary