Jefferson Elementary: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	82,803	2411.9	− 2432	−20.1	× 700 / 4092	−3.4
4	82,804	2452.2	− 2473	−20.8	× 671 / 4092	−3.4
5	82,807	2495.3	− 2502	−6.7	× 658 / 4092	−1.1
6	82,808	2523.5	− 2531	−7.5	× 701 / 4092	−1.3
7	82,811	2533.5	− 2552	−18.5	× 661 / 4092	−3
8	82,812	2552.0	− 2567	−15	× 701 / 4092	−2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−15

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,762	2414.0	− 2432	−18	× 630 / 4030	−2.8
4	76,764	2457.7	− 2473	−15.3	× 690 / 4030	−2.6
5	76,767	2500.4	− 2502	−1.6	× 668 / 4030	−0.3
6	76,768	2531.9	− 2531	0.9	× 674 / 4030	0.2
7	76,770	2544.8	− 2552	−7.2	× 700 / 4030	−1.3
8	76,772	2563.7	− 2567	−3.3	× 668 / 4030	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,845	2409.1	− 2432	−22.9	× 682 / 4040	−3.9
4	78,847	2447.7	− 2473	−25.3	× 635 / 4040	−4
5	78,849	2487.6	− 2502	−14.4	× 673 / 4040	−2.4
6	78,851	2517.6	− 2531	−13.4	× 672 / 4040	−2.2
7	78,854	2555.8	− 2552	3.8	× 665 / 4040	0.6
8	78,855	2564.0	− 2567	−3	× 713 / 4040	−0.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,991	2420.7	− 2432	−11.3	× 575 / 3862	−1.7
4	78,992	2457.4	− 2473	−15.6	× 667 / 3862	−2.7
5	78,995	2483.8	− 2502	−18.2	× 615 / 3862	−2.9
6	78,996	2520.1	− 2531	−10.9	× 663 / 3862	−1.9
7	78,999	2552.6	− 2552	0.6	× 671 / 3862	0.1
8	79,000	2578.2	− 2567	11.2	× 671 / 3862	1.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,518	2421.4	− 2432	−10.6	× 628 / 3781	−1.8
4	79,519	2472.0	− 2473	−1	× 558 / 3781	−0.1
5	79,520	2494.2	− 2502	−7.8	× 655 / 3781	−1.4
6	79,521	2503.5	− 2531	−27.5	× 622 / 3781	−4.5
7	79,522	2556.0	− 2552	4	× 654 / 3781	0.7
8	79,523	2568.0	− 2567	1	× 664 / 3781	0.2
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−7

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	78,003	2396.3	− 2432	−35.7	× 418 / 2524	−5.9
4	78,004	2447.0	− 2473	−26	× 395 / 2524	−4.1
5	78,005	2485.0	− 2502	−17	× 427 / 2524	−2.9
6	78,006	2510.7	− 2531	−20.3	× 405 / 2524	−3.3
7	78,007	2536.6	− 2552	−15.4	× 452 / 2524	−2.8
8	78,008	2548.8	− 2567	−18.2	× 427 / 2524	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,760	2408.3	− 2432	−23.7	× 530 / 3352	−3.7
4	79,761	2455.3	− 2473	−17.7	× 549 / 3352	−2.9
5	79,762	2482.7	− 2502	−19.3	× 559 / 3352	−3.2
6	79,763	2503.2	− 2531	−27.8	× 580 / 3352	−4.8
7	79,764	2545.5	− 2552	−6.5	× 534 / 3352	−1
8	79,765	2566.8	− 2567	−0.2	× 600 / 3352	0
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,732	2419.9	− 2432	−12.1	× 467 / 3206	−1.8
4	79,733	2457.9	− 2473	−15.1	× 520 / 3206	−2.4
5	79,734	2486.6	− 2502	−15.4	× 542 / 3206	−2.6
6	79,735	2504.6	− 2531	−26.4	× 555 / 3206	−4.6
7	79,736	2527.2	− 2552	−24.8	× 570 / 3206	−4.4
8	79,737	2545.0	− 2567	−22	× 552 / 3206	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−20

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,756	2415.6	− 2432	−16.4	× 477 / 3162	−2.5
4	79,757	2464.6	− 2473	−8.4	× 471 / 3162	−1.3
5	79,758	2488.0	− 2502	−14	× 529 / 3162	−2.3
6	79,759	2496.9	− 2531	−34.1	× 541 / 3162	−5.8
7	79,760	2525.7	− 2552	−26.3	× 577 / 3162	−4.8
8	79,761	2535.6	− 2567	−31.4	× 567 / 3162	−5.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−22

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,422	2409.6	− 2432	−22.4	× 485 / 3149	−3.4
4	79,423	2464.2	− 2473	−8.8	× 503 / 3149	−1.4
5	79,424	2498.4	− 2502	−3.6	× 490 / 3149	−0.6
6	79,425	2503.7	− 2531	−27.3	× 552 / 3149	−4.8
7	79,426	2522.1	− 2552	−29.9	× 540 / 3149	−5.1
8	79,427	2550.3	− 2567	−16.7	× 579 / 3149	−3.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	79,350	2414.9	− 2432	−17.1	× 450 / 3080	−2.5
4	79,351	2453.9	− 2473	−19.1	× 498 / 3080	−3.1
5	79,352	2486.0	− 2502	−16	× 511 / 3080	−2.7
6	79,353	2506.1	− 2531	−24.9	× 507 / 3080	−4.1
7	79,354	2538.4	− 2552	−13.6	× 574 / 3080	−2.5
8	79,355	2546.4	− 2567	−20.6	× 540 / 3080	−3.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−18

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −15, −7, −12, −7, −7, −22, −16, −20, −22, −18, −18 → −14.9
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 8 · 2016→2017: 5 · 2017→2018: 5 · 2018→2019: 0 · 2019→2021: 15 · 2021→2022: 6 · 2022→2023: 4 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 4 · 2025→2026: 0 → average 4.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 4.9 × 2.66 = 13. Upper limit −1.9, lower limit −27.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Jefferson Elementary