Vallecitos Elementary: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	76,286	2426.7	− 2432	−5.3	× 22 / 123	−0.9
4	76,289	2452.2	− 2473	−20.8	× 21 / 123	−3.6
5	76,290	2461.1	− 2502	−40.9	× 30 / 123	−10
6	76,293	2512.5	− 2531	−18.5	× 19 / 123	−2.9
7	76,294	2585.9	− 2552	33.9	× 15 / 123	4.1
8	76,297	2545.9	− 2567	−21.1	× 16 / 123	−2.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	70,711	2432.1	− 2432	0.1	× 14 / 113	0
4	70,712	2431.3	− 2473	−41.7	× 23 / 113	−8.5
5	70,714	2556.7	− 2502	54.7	× 20 / 113	9.7
6	70,716	2496.5	− 2531	−34.5	× 26 / 113	−7.9
7	70,718	2588.6	− 2552	36.6	× 15 / 113	4.9
8	70,721	2621.7	− 2567	54.7	× 15 / 113	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						5

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,565	2467.4	− 2432	35.4	× 19 / 124	5.4
4	72,567	2431.1	− 2473	−41.9	× 15 / 124	−5.1
5	72,570	2494.7	− 2502	−7.3	× 23 / 124	−1.4
6	72,572	2545.5	− 2531	14.5	× 23 / 124	2.7
7	72,573	2559.9	− 2552	7.9	× 28 / 124	1.8
8	72,576	2633.9	− 2567	66.9	× 16 / 124	8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						12

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,697	2434.6	− 2432	2.6	× 23 / 140	0.4
4	72,698	2472.9	− 2473	−0.1	× 21 / 140	0
5	72,701	2463.9	− 2502	−38.1	× 16 / 140	−4.4
6	72,702	2522.2	− 2531	−8.8	× 26 / 140	−1.6
7	72,705	2591.6	− 2552	39.6	× 25 / 140	7.1
8	72,706	2587.8	− 2567	20.8	× 29 / 140	4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						6

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,180	2458.5	− 2432	26.5	× 17 / 129	3.5
4	73,181	2439.5	− 2473	−33.5	× 24 / 129	−6.2
5	73,182	2493.0	− 2502	−9	× 21 / 129	−1.5
6	73,183	2488.3	− 2531	−42.7	× 19 / 129	−6.3
7	73,184	2569.2	− 2552	17.2	× 25 / 129	3.3
8	73,185	2627.0	− 2567	60	× 23 / 129	10.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						4

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
8	71,676	2574.3	− 2567	7.3	× 15 / 15	7.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						7

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,286	2428.7	− 2432	−3.3	× 23 / 115	−0.7
4	73,287	2466.1	− 2473	−6.9	× 15 / 115	−0.9
5	73,288	2482.3	− 2502	−19.7	× 18 / 115	−3.1
6	73,289	2516.9	− 2531	−14.1	× 17 / 115	−2.1
7	73,290	2531.7	− 2552	−20.3	× 20 / 115	−3.5
8	73,291	2588.2	− 2567	21.2	× 22 / 115	4.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−6

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,276	2398.7	− 2432	−33.3	× 21 / 125	−5.6
4	73,277	2472.2	− 2473	−0.8	× 24 / 125	−0.2
5	73,278	2496.8	− 2502	−5.2	× 18 / 125	−0.7
6	73,279	2487.4	− 2531	−43.6	× 23 / 125	−8
7	73,280	2506.2	− 2552	−45.8	× 20 / 125	−7.3
8	73,281	2607.3	− 2567	40.3	× 19 / 125	6.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−16

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	73,270	2370.2	− 2432	−61.8	× 23 / 135	−10.5
4	73,271	2479.3	− 2473	6.3	× 23 / 135	1.1
5	73,272	2506.4	− 2502	4.4	× 24 / 135	0.8
6	73,273	2517.7	− 2531	−13.3	× 19 / 135	−1.9
7	73,274	2534.3	− 2552	−17.7	× 28 / 135	−3.7
8	73,275	2603.8	− 2567	36.8	× 18 / 135	4.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−9

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,966	2437.2	− 2432	5.2	× 13 / 133	0.5
4	72,967	2460.2	− 2473	−12.8	× 23 / 133	−2.2
5	72,968	2488.0	− 2502	−14	× 24 / 133	−2.5
6	72,969	2523.6	− 2531	−7.4	× 26 / 133	−1.4
7	72,970	2564.0	− 2552	12	× 19 / 133	1.7
8	72,971	2573.0	− 2567	6	× 28 / 133	1.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	72,988	2464.7	− 2432	32.7	× 12 / 108	3.6
4	72,989	2455.5	− 2473	−17.5	× 13 / 108	−2.1
5	72,990	2419.3	− 2502	−82.7	× 19 / 108	−14.5
6	72,991	2502.5	− 2531	−28.5	× 25 / 108	−6.6
7	72,992	2561.5	− 2552	9.5	× 23 / 108	2
8	72,993	2604.4	− 2567	37.4	× 16 / 108	5.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−12

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −16, 5, 12, 6, 4, 7, −6, −16, −9, −3, −12 → −2.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 21 · 2016→2017: 7 · 2017→2018: 6 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 3 · 2021→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 10 · 2023→2024: 7 · 2024→2025: 6 · 2025→2026: 9 → average 8.4
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8.4 × 2.66 = 22.3. Upper limit 19.8, lower limit −24.8.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Vallecitos Elementary