Merced County Office of Education: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	43,805	2396.4	− 2531	−134.6	× 19 / 259	−9.9
7	43,807	2457.6	− 2552	−94.4	× 34 / 259	−12.4
8	43,810	2440.0	− 2567	−127	× 44 / 259	−21.6
11	43,811	2468.4	− 2583	−114.6	× 162 / 259	−71.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−116

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	40,509	2422.8	− 2552	−129.2	× 33 / 200	−21.3
8	40,511	2462.6	− 2567	−104.4	× 40 / 200	−20.9
11	40,513	2492.6	− 2583	−90.4	× 127 / 200	−57.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−100

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	41,514	2393.7	− 2531	−137.3	× 15 / 218	−9.4
7	41,516	2431.1	− 2552	−120.9	× 35 / 218	−19.4
8	41,519	2412.9	− 2567	−154.1	× 40 / 218	−28.3
11	41,520	2484.6	− 2583	−98.4	× 128 / 218	−57.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−115

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	41,544	2420.7	− 2531	−110.3	× 25 / 298	−9.3
7	41,546	2464.4	− 2552	−87.6	× 32 / 298	−9.4
8	41,548	2457.7	− 2567	−109.3	× 58 / 298	−21.3
11	41,550	2472.7	− 2583	−110.3	× 183 / 298	−67.7
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−108

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	41,680	2374.1	− 2473	−98.9	× 13 / 311	−4.1
5	41,681	2374.3	− 2502	−127.7	× 12 / 311	−4.9
6	41,682	2431.7	− 2531	−99.3	× 21 / 311	−6.7
7	41,683	2434.6	− 2552	−117.4	× 45 / 311	−17
8	41,684	2469.4	− 2567	−97.6	× 61 / 311	−19.1
11	41,685	2469.8	− 2583	−113.2	× 159 / 311	−57.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
7	40,574	2503.4	− 2552	−48.6	× 23 / 174	−6.4
8	40,575	2507.0	− 2567	−60	× 28 / 174	−9.7
11	40,576	2486.9	− 2583	−96.1	× 123 / 174	−67.9
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−84

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,430	2313.5	− 2432	−118.5	× 18 / 410	−5.2
4	41,431	2373.6	− 2473	−99.4	× 30 / 410	−7.3
5	41,432	2410.2	− 2502	−91.8	× 34 / 410	−7.6
6	41,433	2459.1	− 2531	−71.9	× 35 / 410	−6.1
7	41,434	2440.1	− 2552	−111.9	× 50 / 410	−13.6
8	41,435	2478.0	− 2567	−89	× 59 / 410	−12.8
11	41,436	2466.4	− 2583	−116.6	× 184 / 410	−52.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−105

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
4	41,462	2369.9	− 2473	−103.1	× 15 / 395	−3.9
5	41,463	2420.8	− 2502	−81.2	× 30 / 395	−6.2
6	41,464	2396.4	− 2531	−134.6	× 32 / 395	−10.9
7	41,465	2464.5	− 2552	−87.5	× 52 / 395	−11.5
8	41,466	2436.6	− 2567	−130.4	× 79 / 395	−26.1
11	41,467	2460.9	− 2583	−122.1	× 187 / 395	−57.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−116

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,278	2343.8	− 2432	−88.2	× 14 / 398	−3.1
4	41,279	2290.2	− 2473	−182.8	× 11 / 398	−5.1
5	41,280	2390.6	− 2502	−111.4	× 24 / 398	−6.7
6	41,281	2441.7	− 2531	−89.3	× 33 / 398	−7.4
7	41,282	2428.0	− 2552	−124	× 51 / 398	−15.9
8	41,283	2459.3	− 2567	−107.7	× 61 / 398	−16.5
11	41,284	2460.1	− 2583	−122.9	× 204 / 398	−63
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−118

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,043	2315.9	− 2432	−116.1	× 18 / 382	−5.5
4	41,044	2354.6	− 2473	−118.4	× 18 / 382	−5.6
5	41,045	2357.8	− 2502	−144.2	× 16 / 382	−6
6	41,046	2418.7	− 2531	−112.3	× 33 / 382	−9.7
7	41,047	2449.1	− 2552	−102.9	× 56 / 382	−15.1
8	41,048	2453.8	− 2567	−113.2	× 70 / 382	−20.7
11	41,049	2477.7	− 2583	−105.3	× 171 / 382	−47.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−110

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
6	40,950	2402.8	− 2531	−128.2	× 16 / 171	−12
7	40,951	2409.6	− 2552	−142.4	× 25 / 171	−20.8
8	40,952	2411.6	− 2567	−155.4	× 49 / 171	−44.5
11	40,953	2426.7	− 2583	−156.3	× 81 / 171	−74
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−151

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −116, −100, −115, −108, −110, −84, −105, −116, −118, −110, −151 → −112.1
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 16 · 2016→2017: 15 · 2017→2018: 7 · 2018→2019: 2 · 2019→2021: 26 · 2021→2022: 21 · 2022→2023: 11 · 2023→2024: 2 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 41 → average 14.9
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 14.9 × 2.66 = 39.6. Upper limit −72.5, lower limit −151.7.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Merced County Office of Education