Arena Union Elementary: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	43,143	2386.7	− 2432	−45.3	× 39 / 171	−10.3
4	43,146	2459.2	− 2473	−13.8	× 23 / 171	−1.9
5	43,147	2440.2	− 2502	−61.8	× 29 / 171	−10.5
6	43,150	2512.2	− 2531	−18.8	× 25 / 171	−2.7
7	43,151	2535.5	− 2552	−16.5	× 32 / 171	−3.1
8	43,154	2569.0	− 2567	2	× 23 / 171	0.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−28

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	39,835	2392.2	− 2432	−39.8	× 32 / 186	−6.8
4	39,838	2440.1	− 2473	−32.9	× 37 / 186	−6.5
5	39,840	2473.4	− 2502	−28.6	× 27 / 186	−4.2
6	39,842	2489.5	− 2531	−41.5	× 31 / 186	−6.9
7	39,844	2541.2	− 2552	−10.8	× 26 / 186	−1.5
8	39,845	2562.5	− 2567	−4.5	× 33 / 186	−0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−27

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,859	2386.1	− 2432	−45.9	× 27 / 179	−6.9
4	40,860	2446.2	− 2473	−26.8	× 32 / 179	−4.8
5	40,863	2466.9	− 2502	−35.1	× 36 / 179	−7.1
6	40,864	2494.4	− 2531	−36.6	× 26 / 179	−5.3
7	40,866	2495.3	− 2552	−56.7	× 31 / 179	−9.8
8	40,868	2545.0	− 2567	−22	× 27 / 179	−3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−37

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,876	2381.7	− 2432	−50.3	× 22 / 163	−6.8
4	40,878	2480.3	− 2473	7.3	× 23 / 163	1
5	40,880	2460.5	− 2502	−41.5	× 30 / 163	−7.6
6	40,882	2471.7	− 2531	−59.3	× 32 / 163	−11.6
7	40,883	2519.8	− 2552	−32.2	× 26 / 163	−5.1
8	40,885	2524.7	− 2567	−42.3	× 30 / 163	−7.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	41,021	2434.0	− 2432	2	× 25 / 156	0.3
4	41,022	2447.2	− 2473	−25.8	× 25 / 156	−4.1
5	41,023	2504.7	− 2502	2.7	× 20 / 156	0.3
6	41,024	2494.2	− 2531	−36.8	× 29 / 156	−6.8
7	41,025	2522.7	− 2552	−29.3	× 31 / 156	−5.8
8	41,026	2515.7	− 2567	−51.3	× 26 / 156	−8.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−25

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,786	2390.8	− 2432	−41.2	× 24 / 138	−7.2
4	40,787	2447.5	− 2473	−25.5	× 20 / 138	−3.7
5	40,788	2470.2	− 2502	−31.8	× 21 / 138	−4.8
6	40,789	2497.0	− 2531	−34	× 23 / 138	−5.7
7	40,790	2504.8	− 2552	−47.2	× 26 / 138	−8.9
8	40,791	2524.1	− 2567	−42.9	× 24 / 138	−7.5
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−38

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,817	2413.5	− 2432	−18.5	× 19 / 128	−2.7
4	40,818	2393.0	− 2473	−80	× 21 / 128	−13.1
5	40,819	2426.3	− 2502	−75.7	× 20 / 128	−11.8
6	40,820	2475.1	− 2531	−55.9	× 19 / 128	−8.3
7	40,821	2515.2	− 2552	−36.8	× 21 / 128	−6
8	40,822	2517.5	− 2567	−49.5	× 28 / 128	−10.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−53

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,640	2369.3	− 2432	−62.7	× 26 / 140	−11.6
4	40,641	2409.8	− 2473	−63.2	× 20 / 140	−9
5	40,642	2441.5	− 2502	−60.5	× 26 / 140	−11.2
6	40,643	2426.9	− 2531	−104.1	× 23 / 140	−17.1
7	40,644	2504.5	− 2552	−47.5	× 22 / 140	−7.5
8	40,645	2551.0	− 2567	−16	× 23 / 140	−2.6
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,425	2402.0	− 2432	−30	× 26 / 145	−5.4
4	40,426	2402.1	− 2473	−70.9	× 25 / 145	−12.2
5	40,427	2430.8	− 2502	−71.2	× 25 / 145	−12.3
6	40,428	2459.4	− 2531	−71.6	× 24 / 145	−11.9
7	40,429	2470.6	− 2552	−81.4	× 24 / 145	−13.5
8	40,430	2540.9	− 2567	−26.1	× 21 / 145	−3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−59

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	40,335	2354.9	− 2432	−77.1	× 32 / 153	−16.1
4	40,336	2425.3	− 2473	−47.7	× 27 / 153	−8.4
5	40,337	2454.5	− 2502	−47.5	× 23 / 153	−7.1
6	40,338	2437.3	− 2531	−93.7	× 23 / 153	−14.1
7	40,339	2464.9	− 2552	−87.1	× 24 / 153	−13.7
8	40,340	2489.9	− 2567	−77.1	× 24 / 153	−12.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−72

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −28, −27, −37, −38, −25, −38, −53, −59, −59, −72 → −43.6
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 1 · 2016→2017: 10 · 2017→2018: 1 · 2018→2019: 13 · 2019→2022: 13 · 2022→2023: 15 · 2023→2024: 6 · 2024→2025: 0 · 2025→2026: 13 → average 8
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 8 × 2.66 = 21.3. Upper limit −22.3, lower limit −64.9.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Arena Union Elementary