Lake Elementary: english

The shaded band is this district's normal range. If nothing about how it works changes, nearly every future year should land inside it. Zero means the typical student just meets the state standard. The small numbers under the years are how many students were tested.

Step 1 · Each year's result

For each grade tested, take the average (mean) scale score from the California Department of Education's results file, and subtract the lowest score that counts as "Standard Met" for that grade. That is the grade's distance from standard. Weight each grade by its share of the students tested, then add the grades up. Grades where the state hides the average because ten or fewer students tested are left out entirely.

2015 from sb_ca2015_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	13,060	2397.1	− 2432	−34.9	× 20 / 110	−6.3
4	13,063	2454.0	− 2473	−19	× 18 / 110	−3.1
5	13,064	2498.7	− 2502	−3.3	× 12 / 110	−0.4
6	13,067	2560.7	− 2531	29.7	× 15 / 110	4.1
7	13,068	2553.4	− 2552	1.4	× 21 / 110	0.3
8	13,071	2576.6	− 2567	9.6	× 24 / 110	2.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2016 from sb_ca2016_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,079	2360.5	− 2432	−71.5	× 20 / 109	−13.1
4	12,081	2465.2	− 2473	−7.8	× 21 / 109	−1.5
5	12,082	2499.2	− 2502	−2.8	× 19 / 109	−0.5
6	12,085	2570.3	− 2531	39.3	× 13 / 109	4.7
7	12,086	2601.4	− 2552	49.4	× 16 / 109	7.3
8	12,089	2587.8	− 2567	20.8	× 20 / 109	3.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						1

2017 from sb_ca2017_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,412	2390.2	− 2432	−41.8	× 18 / 110	−6.8
4	12,414	2434.0	− 2473	−39	× 20 / 110	−7.1
5	12,416	2478.0	− 2502	−24	× 23 / 110	−5
6	12,417	2582.1	− 2531	51.1	× 19 / 110	8.8
7	12,420	2599.6	− 2552	47.6	× 15 / 110	6.5
8	12,422	2573.1	− 2567	6.1	× 15 / 110	0.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−3

2018 from sb_ca2018_1_csv_v3.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,436	2393.4	− 2432	−38.6	× 19 / 117	−6.3
4	12,439	2474.4	− 2473	1.4	× 19 / 117	0.2
5	12,440	2478.7	− 2502	−23.3	× 21 / 117	−4.2
6	12,443	2574.9	− 2531	43.9	× 24 / 117	9
7	12,444	2624.9	− 2552	72.9	× 19 / 117	11.8
8	12,447	2570.2	− 2567	3.2	× 15 / 117	0.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						11

2019 from sb_ca2019_1_csv_v4.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,530	2472.5	− 2432	40.5	× 19 / 123	6.3
4	12,531	2482.6	− 2473	9.6	× 19 / 123	1.5
5	12,532	2531.7	− 2502	29.7	× 20 / 123	4.8
6	12,533	2550.4	− 2531	19.4	× 22 / 123	3.5
7	12,534	2609.5	− 2552	57.5	× 24 / 123	11.2
8	12,535	2588.3	− 2567	21.3	× 19 / 123	3.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						31

2021 from sb_ca2021_1_csv_v2.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,354	2401.6	− 2432	−30.4	× 18 / 106	−5.2
4	12,355	2480.7	− 2473	7.7	× 19 / 106	1.4
5	12,356	2504.9	− 2502	2.9	× 17 / 106	0.5
6	12,357	2554.1	− 2531	23.1	× 17 / 106	3.7
7	12,358	2552.5	− 2552	0.5	× 17 / 106	0.1
8	12,359	2541.4	− 2567	−25.6	× 18 / 106	−4.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						−4

2022 from sb_ca2022_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,539	2459.8	− 2432	27.8	× 19 / 118	4.5
4	12,540	2434.9	− 2473	−38.1	× 19 / 118	−6.1
5	12,541	2516.7	− 2502	14.7	× 20 / 118	2.5
6	12,542	2555.8	− 2531	24.8	× 20 / 118	4.2
7	12,543	2569.8	− 2552	17.8	× 20 / 118	3
8	12,544	2517.6	− 2567	−49.4	× 20 / 118	−8.4
Sum, rounded to a whole point						0

2023 from sb_ca2023_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,524	2428.2	− 2432	−3.8	× 24 / 120	−0.8
4	12,525	2476.9	− 2473	3.9	× 20 / 120	0.7
5	12,526	2469.9	− 2502	−32.1	× 17 / 120	−4.5
6	12,527	2566.7	− 2531	35.7	× 21 / 120	6.2
7	12,528	2618.8	− 2552	66.8	× 18 / 120	10
8	12,529	2580.9	− 2567	13.9	× 20 / 120	2.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						14

2024 from sb_ca2024_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,493	2451.2	− 2432	19.2	× 22 / 125	3.4
4	12,494	2455.0	− 2473	−18	× 24 / 125	−3.5
5	12,495	2531.7	− 2502	29.7	× 20 / 125	4.8
6	12,496	2578.7	− 2531	47.7	× 20 / 125	7.6
7	12,497	2612.2	− 2552	60.2	× 19 / 125	9.2
8	12,498	2599.0	− 2567	32	× 20 / 125	5.1
Sum, rounded to a whole point						27

2025 from sb_ca2025_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,466	2472.9	− 2432	40.9	× 21 / 126	6.8
4	12,467	2475.3	− 2473	2.3	× 22 / 126	0.4
5	12,468	2454.5	− 2502	−47.5	× 25 / 126	−9.4
6	12,469	2613.4	− 2531	82.4	× 19 / 126	12.4
7	12,470	2619.0	− 2552	67	× 21 / 126	11.2
8	12,471	2663.4	− 2567	96.4	× 18 / 126	13.8
Sum, rounded to a whole point						35

2026 from sb_ca2026_1_csv_v1.zip

Grade	Line in file	Average score	Standard Met	Distance	Students	Weighted
3	12,486	2466.0	− 2432	34	× 22 / 126	5.9
4	12,487	2515.3	− 2473	42.3	× 20 / 126	6.7
5	12,488	2516.6	− 2502	14.6	× 21 / 126	2.4
6	12,489	2570.4	− 2531	39.4	× 24 / 126	7.5
7	12,490	2642.6	− 2552	90.6	× 19 / 126	13.7
8	12,491	2650.5	− 2567	83.5	× 20 / 126	13.3
Sum, rounded to a whole point						50

Step 2 · The average and the normal range

Average: add the yearly results and divide by how many there are. −3, 1, −3, 11, 31, −4, 0, 14, 27, 35, 50 → 14.5
Typical year-to-year change: how far the result moved from each year to the next, ignoring up or down. 2015→2016: 4 · 2016→2017: 4 · 2017→2018: 14 · 2018→2019: 20 · 2019→2021: 35 · 2021→2022: 4 · 2022→2023: 14 · 2023→2024: 13 · 2024→2025: 8 · 2025→2026: 15 → average 13.1
Normal range: multiply the typical change by 2.66, then add it to the average and subtract it. 13.1 × 2.66 = 34.8. Upper limit 49.3, lower limit −20.3.

Why 2.66? It is the standard factor from quality control, the work of Walter Shewhart and W. Edwards Deming. It turns "how much the result typically changes in a year" into "how far it can wander by chance alone".

Years with no result (no state tests were given in spring 2020) are skipped: the year-to-year change runs from the last year with a result to the next one.

Step 3 · Free or reduced-price meals

The share of enrolled students eligible for free or reduced-price meals — for a district, the total across its schools. From 2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24, 2024–25, 2025–26.

Lake Elementary